Saturday, December 29, 2007

Snow Totals and Grading time

Good Saturday Morning,
 
Here are some snowfall reports, please send in yours!

Marceline, MO: 3.8-4"

Smithville, MO: 2.75-4"

St. Joseph, MO: 3.5"

Trenton, MO: 3.2"

Fort Leavenworth: 3.25"

Roeland Park, KS: 3.0"

Independence, MO: 2.5-3"

Overland Park, KS: 2.5-3"

Stanley, KS: 2.9"

Olathe, KS: 2.8"

Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center(Olathe): 2.7"

KCK: 2-2.5"

Moberly, MO: 1.9"

Lee's Summit, MO: 1.6"

Harrisonville, MO: 1.3"

Sedalia, MO: 0.50 to near 1"

It's grading time! What do you rate this snowfall forecast? Grade the Snowfall forecast from the last post below.

 

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Snow Storm update:11:15pm 1st SnowFall Forecast


Above is the Snow Fall Forecast, I think that 2"-3" KC and North. 4"+ North of KCI. Below is the radar showing increasing snow in Emporia,KS. Have to watch this closely as this may lead to enhanced snowfall totals.


Send in you Snow reports!
Andrew

Did you have a Merry Christmas?

Good Evening,
 
Hope you had a good Christmas. We had Snow Today! 1.0"-1.4" were reported. Now we have our next storm system to watch which could bring us 1-4" of snow. This will affect us on Thursday Night. I'll will also be doing a blog in the next couple day on the true reason for Christmas! So, stay tuned!
 
Andrew
 
 

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Grading Time

Good Afternoon,
Here's a quick little project for you guys to do:
- Grade yesterday's Snow Forecast (the Final Forecast from the 3:45pm blog post below)
- Send in your snowfall reports
I'll blog more on our next storm system,plus, Snow Fall Totals, later tonight,
Merry Christmas,
Andrew

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Update: 3:45pm

Good Afternoon,

Here is the look at the radar (click to enlarge)from around 3:39pm:



The comma head is going to come thru between 5-8pm. Thunder Snow with 1-2"/hr snowfall rate is possible. Here is the latest and final Snowfall Forecast:



Send in your Snow fall totals tonight, Thanks!
Andrew

Update: 1:15pm

Good Afternoon,

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the KC Metro Area.
The radar image below is from 12:57pm, I drew where it appears the Snow Line is at. The Snow Line is moving at 20mph to the South and Southwest. By 2pm everybody in the KC Metro should be in the Snow. Very Heavy Snow with Strong Winds, and some Thunder Snow is possible.
click to enlarge

Here is the latest Snow Fall Forecast, I am getting a little worried as the snow line seems to have slowed down a little bit, but I'm keeping with this forecast.
click to enlarge

Send in your Snow Reports!
Andrew

Snowfall Forecast

Good late Evening,

It's currently 12:12am, the first day of Winter as official arrived!! Below (click to enlarge) is the Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory, which I do expect will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, maybe even a Blizzard Warning as winds will gust tomorrow afternoon from the NE at 25-30mph. Add that with the Moderate to Heavy Snow Showers; we could see white-out conditions.


Now onto the Snowfall Forecast below (click to enlarge) the 00z data seems to have the bullseye right on Kansas City, so I'm going with 5"-7"+ possible. Right now I lean to the 5" range with locally heavier amounts of 6"+. Right now the chance for a White Christmas is up to a 70% chance!!


I'll have more in about 8-10 hours!!
Andrew

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Snow Likely? A White Christmas?

Good Evening,

I have just updated the 5 Day Forecast on the website. Below is the 00z GFS valid at 6pm Saturday, it forecast for the southern storm to be a little stronger before phasing into the northern storm system. I have put the forecasted track of both storms to where they both phase into one big storm.
click to enlarge
As for the White CHRISTmas, the chance is up to a 30% as there is another storm system forecasted to develop and swing south of us. So, after 10-20 years of Brown Christmases could we finally have a white one? We'll will see.
Andrew


Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Another SnowStorm?

Quick Update on Saturday's Storm,

The 00z data has the storm system coming in just south of here, which would mean snow. But, there is a Upper Level Low (ULL) which will phase the storm system that could affect us and make one big ULL just north of here. More tomorrow. The 5 Day Forecast is updated.

Andrew

Monday, December 17, 2007

Update:11pm Another Storm System for this weekend?



Good Evening,

Above is the NWS Estimated Snow Totals (click to enlarge). After lowering the totals Saturday Afternoon to 3-5" which was just about right. I rate the forecast a C-. I should of known not to go for 7-8" of Snow. The Storm System was just too weak, and now it has became a BIG Northeaster !! I am updating the 5 Day Forecast Finally, and I'll have it ready and online between 10:15pm and 10:30pm. We have another Storm System coming toward us for next weekend. The questions are:
  • Will the storm track North or South of KC?
  • If the storm tracks south:
  • Will it be cold enough for snow?
  • Will it be cold enough throughout the atmosphere for snow?
  • Could it be Freezing Rain/Sleet?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update: Take a look at the new GFS (click to enlarge), valid on Saturday at 6am,it shows the forecast track for the storm system to be a little bit more southerly, this would mean SNOW again for the weekend!! This is still a few days away, so lets see what the trend is tomorrow. Have you Noticed? All the weekends,so far,in December have had either Rain, Snow,Sleet, or Freezing rain!! Amazing!


Have a Great Night!
Andrew

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Snow Storm update: 11:30am

Good Late Morning,

Take a look at the radar, Light to Moderate Snow continues through the area.
With a few Heavy pockets.
Click to enlarge

So far here at the Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center: 1.4" of Snow, there has also, been some freezing Drizzle!! WOW!! Super Cooled droplets are still becoming drizzle mixed with snow. The whole Atmosphere is below 32 degrees! Amazing. We still might be able to get a Snow to total of 3-5"+. Send in your Snow Reports and later I'll make a list of Snow Totals! Thanks!
Andrew

Friday, December 14, 2007

Snow Storm update: 11:00pm

Good Evening,

Here is the latest Snowfall Forecast:


And here is the radar with a path cast on it:




I do not like the latest radar trends, I'm hoping that I'm right about the above snow fall Forecast. More on this tomorrow. Send in your Snow Totals, Please! Click the maps to enlarge them.
Andrew

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Snow Forecast for Friday Night through Saturday

Click to enlarge map
Good Evening,

Here is the Snowfall Forecast for Tomorrow night. I do think 7-10"+ is possible. We do have A Winter Storm Watch for Friday Night through Saturday Afternoon. I'll have more tomorrow, as things can and will change fast.
Andrew

Things thaw just a bit, but......

Good Mid-Morning,
 
Things are starting thaw out finally. This won't last long, tomorrow night, we have snow coming and KC could see 3-4"+. The farther north you the less you get. The farther south you the more you get. I'll have an update when the new data comes out. Send in your Ice Storm photos: stafandt@earthlink.net .
 
Andrew

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

WOW! ICE STORM is almost over.

click to enlarge

The Ice Storm is almost over, overnight there will be a North wind 10-15 mph, some Light Freezing Drizzle/Rain and/or Snow Flurries. Temperatures as of 8:48pm are just at 32 degrees. The Sidewalks,Decks, and surfaces will freeze tonight. The Main Roads will stay fine, but the Side Roads will be slick. We were so close to having a Major Ice Storm, but temperatures were just enough above freezing to keep today's rain mainly a cold, soaking rain!! As you can see on the map above, provided by the National Weather Service in Kansas City:
  • KC and South of I-70 had 1/4" of Ice.
  • KC and North of I-70 has 1/4"-1"+.
Saint Joseph has see alot of devastation with Power Lines everywhere, Power Outages everywhere, tree branches, and whole trees all over the place.
Now South I-70 there were scattered Power Outages, the Weather Cast Plus Weather Center did not have a power outage, but we did have some damage.
There still could be some problems tonight as the Winds pick up from the North 10-15 mph. And as temperatures start falling, Freezing Drizzle could cause a little bit more ice accumulation of 1/10" or Less. Here is a photo I took of the damage, here at the Weather Cast Plus Weather Center:

(click to enlarge). Send in your ICE STORM photos to me: stafandt@earthlink.net

BE SAFE, AND CAREFUL!
Andrew

Monday, December 10, 2007

Ice Storm Update:11:38pm


Update: 12:12 am
Click to enlarge radar image above. This is what will happen for the remainder of the night. Read the entry from 11:38pm for more info.
****************************************************************************
Temperatures have warmed up to around 32 degrees, this will help with the ice accumulations. This appears that it will not be a major ice storm. It still is causing problems, scattered power outages are happening across the area. Please Send in your photos and you ICE reports:
I'll have more tomorrow. A ICE STORM Warning is still in effect until midnight late tuesday night.
At the Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center 11:35pm:
Temp: 32.5 F
Dewpoint: 28.5 F
Humidity: 85%
Winds: 0 mph East
Precip: 0.08"
ICE Accumulation Estimated: .10"-.15" or less. Power Lines,and trees sagging a little bit.
Be Safe!
Andrew

Sunday, December 9, 2007

We are not done yet! Major ICE Storm?


UPDATE: 10:40pm

The Latest (above,click to enlarge) GFS 36 hour precip shows a wet solution! It also continues to say that the temps. will be around 33-35 degrees. That would be just enough above freezing to keep us from a ice storm. But I think it will colder than around 28 degrees, because of the snow pack and ice pack that is around us. I'll have more tomorrow!
**********************************************
Good Evening,
New Data is rolling in and I will update the blog with maps. Right now, Monday looks to be dry and COLD. But Monday Night through Tuesday we could be set up for a MAJOR ICE STORM. The National Weather Service has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for the whole KC Metro Area from Monday evening through Tuesday. Freezing Rain looks likely. Here are some tips from PK in LS on the NBC Action Weather PLUS blog:
"Getting ready for an ice storm is a matter of some common sense.

If you lose your electricity, you need to know how the power company determines the order of getting your power restored. It is not in the order it goes off. Repairs are determined by how many homes/businesses a single fix will get back on. So if you have buried powerlines and all of your neighborhood is out, that is a good thing. That means the trouble is on a large line or substation or transformer. If you are the only one in your neighborhood without power, you're going to be off a while. That means the problem is in your service from the mainline to your house. And that is a single repair that gets on a single home. You will be at the end of the line. If your service to your house is buried, you are in better shape to stay on than if your service line is above ground.

In case you are curious, my grandfather, father, and brother all worked for the power companies.

If your house is properly insulated, your pipes will not freeze. If you are concerned about them, leave a trickle of hot water running.

Stock up on food that does not need to be heated to be eaten.

Just because electricity goes off does not mean your natural gas is affected.

If all your house phones are handheld receivers, they need electricity to run. Make certain your cellphone is fully charged.

If you lose power, do NOT open up your freezer. Food stays frozen a lot longer in a closed freezer than you can imagine.

Fill up your cars with gas tomorrow."
I'll have another update soon.
Andrew

Saturday, December 8, 2007

Winter/ICE Storm update 11:45pm

Take a look at the radar from 11:30pm:

As expected Freezing Rain is increasing and as you can see there are some Lighting icons showing up. So there could be some Thunder freezing rain!! Ice Accumulations are going to be a little lower because the precip. has just started to really fire up. About .10"-.15" can be expected in the KC Area. Farther South you go, Ice accumulations will be around .25"-.50". Be careful and have a great night.
Andrew

Winter/ICE Storm update 7:00pm

Latest Winter Weather Advisory clik to enlarge
As you can see above there is now and Ice Storm Warning for just south and east of KC. We could see .10-.25" of Ice. The counties in the ICE Storm Warning could see .25-.50" of Ice. So be careful out there. For Road Conditions Refer to the Last blog post below. I'll have more updates as soon as the 00z data comes out. Below is a picture of the Ice from Brent in Harrisonville,MO. Send in your reports and pictures to me: kcweather@tornadochaser.every1.net . For Ice reports just comment.
Andrew
click to enlarge photo

Winter/ICE Storm update 10:00am


Above: Surface Map 10:30am click to enlarge

Good Morning,

A ICE STORM WARNING is very likely for Tonight into Sunday Afternoon. Freezing Drizzle has glazed the area a little bit with Ice. Already Colder Temperatures are invading the area, temps will slowly drop into the 20s, Freezing Drizzle will continue through this afternoon. This Evening into Sunday Afternoon is when I expect the Heaviest precip. Ice accumulation will be around .25"-.50" . Winds will also be a factor, as they will be from the N at 10-20mph. Please send in any pictures to me: kcweather@tornadochaser.every1.net . Please give me your ice reports too. Click on Comments then Post Comments. Please Be careful out there, as I435 is already closed down because of some accidents. Here is the link to the KC Scout Network (cameras,traffic,etc):

For Kansas City:

http://www.kcscout.net/

For Kansas Roads:

1-800-585-ROAD

http://511.ksdot.org/kanroadpublic/Ksys/KRDefault.asp

For Missouri:

http://maps.modot.mo.gov/travelerinformation/TravelerInformation.aspx

573-751-3313

800-222-6400 ROADS

I'll have more later.

Be SAFE.
Andrew

Friday, December 7, 2007

Winter Storm Watch

Good Afternoon,
 
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Afternoon. It will likely be extended Sunday Night as this storm appears to hang on for 5-7 days! A Major Ice Storm seems to be Likely. Weather Cast PLUS video is updated for Todays Forecast. I'll have more after the 18z data comes out. Check out the post below from this morning.
Andrew

Arctic COLD Front/Complex Weekend Storm




As you can see from the above maps (click to enlarge) another shot of reinforcing Arctic Air is on it's way. It will be modified just a little bit,as it moves through Tonight. There is a growing snow pack up north and this snow pack will play a little roll in what will happen this weekend. Below is the 850 mb (4000-5000 Ft above earths surface) temps forecast. (click to enlarge) That big thick blue that is over KC or just north of KC is the 32F degree line or the freezing line. This is really important because the warmer air just above the surface, would the melt the snow into rain, but because it appears for right now that Temperatures will be around 32 degrees or below. We could see Freezing Rain,Sleet,Rain,or Snow. It could be a major Ice Storm,but right now this is a Very Complex Storm System. I'll have more later when the 18z data comes out.


Be Safe! And send in your weather photos to kcweather@tornadochaser.every1.net .
Andrew

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Winter Storm Update: 3:30pm Things are winding down


Well, Take a look at the radar, (click to enlarge) and you can see the back edge has made through Olathe, Kansas City, St. Joseph, and Paola,etc. The focus now turns to the weekend forecast, new data is coming out and I'll have more tonight around 9:30pm or so.

Snowfall Totals so Far:

2.0" St. Joseph,MO
1.5" Smithville, MO
1.2" Lawrence,KS

1.2" Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center
1.0" Olathe,Ks
1.0" Raymore,MO

PLEASE Send in your Snow Totals and Snow Pictures! I hope to have an updated Snow Totals tonight.
Predictions of 1-2"+ were right on. I'm am updating Weather Cast PLUS and hope to get it online soon. We will go down to around 27 degrees tonight with maybe a couple of Flurries.

Andrew

Winter Storm Update: 11:25am


It is coming down real hard, I can't find my "Snow ruler" so estimating about 1" has fell,here at the Weather Center. You can see on the radar Heavy Snow will continue with about 2-3" for the Total. Send in your measurements and any Pictures that you have taken!

Andrew

Winter Storm Update: 9:15am

click to enlarge above image
Update: 9:30am It's snowing in Olathe at the Weather Cast Plus Weather Center!
A report just came in that snow is falling in Lawrence. There still could be a mix. Stay tuned.
======================
It's not snowing yet! Take a look at First Alert Storm Scan Doppler from 8:56am. Right now none of the precip. is falling in KC right now. It appears that the Snow Line, where the snow and/or Freezing Rain or Sleet is Falling. Notice that Lawrence reported at 8:52am a mix of Snow/Sleet. Should start changing over soon. Please Send in your reports through out the day. Is it snowing in your area yet? What is it doing in your area?

More updates coming!
Be Safe!
Andrew

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Our First 1"+ of Snow Likely!


UPDATE: The NWS has included us in the Snow Advisory. Look Above at warning map. Click to enlarge.
-------------------------------------
You read that right! I'm am updating the 5 Day right now. Be online around 10:15/30. The snow/mix line will be likely 50-60 miles south of KC. We are in a Winter Weather Advisory while up North in St. Joesph is in a Snow Advisory. I expect the National Weather Service to put us in the Snow Advisory when they update their forecast. Right now it looks like 2-3" in KC. 2-4" in North of KC. We could see it turn to a Mix as I think it will get up to around 34 degrees. Stay Tuned! Things are changing for the weekend. More tomorrow morning!

Andrew

Weather getting Exciting!!

Finally! Things are getting exciting, We could see Snow tomorrow or a mixed bag, it's tricky. But the NEW GFS wants to paint a big glob of precip. Where will the Rain/Snow Line be? That remains unanswered. The chance for precip is now up to a 60%! I'll will try to update Weather Cast PLUS today, but I am a little busy today. Then this weekend is even interesting, Arctic Air will continue to get stronger. With a growing snowpack up north, we could see Snow, Freezing Rain, and Sleet this weekend. Stay Tuned, I will have another update when the 18z data comes in!

Andrew
 

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Snow? Freezing Rain? Rain? Sleet? Any of thes in the next few days?

Well,right now you can eliminate Freezing Rain,and Sleet. For Thursday the forecast still looks like rain, but could there be snow? Take a look at the latest NAM is does not looks good for rain or any precip. There could be light snow/rain by the Iowa/Missouri border.

Below is the surface data from 9:33pm today. That Cold Front up north will accelerate its way through us early tomorrow morning. Looking on to next week, we could see rain Saturday and Sunday. Another storm system comes Tuesday too. Could we see some Freezing Rain,Sleet, or Snow? Maybe, way too early to tell.

I'm updating the 5 Day, so it will be online between 10:15 and10:30pm.
Have a Great Night,
Andrew

Monday, December 3, 2007

UPDATE: 9:30pm New Data on Thursday's Storm

Update: 9:30pm
Good Evening, Look below at the 500 MB Map Valid at 12pm on Thursday You can see a Upper Level Low in Northern Nebraska, and Southern South Dakota. this is a Very weak. Right now rain is all we will get. The chance stands at 30%. The map below the 500 Mb is the surface MSLP map it shows a little bit of rain nearby. There could be Thunder Storms Saturday Night! New Data continues to come in. update more on this tomorrow. Weather Cast PLUS is updated and the 5 Day Forecast, I'm about to Update.
Andrew





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3:15pm post:
The new data is not looking real good for Thursday, this system will be very weak, so maybe some Rain/Snow. It does not look like our first 1"+ of Snow for a while. This based on the 18z NAM, As soon as the 18z GFS comes out I'll update this blog. I do not like the trends though. I'll have more A.S.A.P. I'm getting ready to update Weather Cast PLUS.
Andrew

Sunday, December 2, 2007

Thursday's Storm

Good Sunday Evening,

Take a look at the GFS (click to enlarge)Valid 6pm Friday:




The blue 540 line is where the rain/snow line is, as you can see it is just south of Kansas City. So could it be snowing Thursday and Friday? Right now Thursday looks like it will be a mix, some sleet, snow, and Rain is possible. Maybe even some Freezing Rain. This is still a few day away, so We'll have to what the New Data tomorrow has. The 5 Day Forecast has been updated, just click the links to your right. And Don't forget to sign up for the KC Weather Mailing list at KC Weather Website. Also, Check out Premium Weather, you can get a FREE 14 DAY Trial, or check out StormLAB Radar by Storm Alert Inc. Makes a Great CHRISTmas gift!!

Have a Great Night,
Andrew

Saturday, December 1, 2007

5 Day updated

The Weather Cast PLUS 5 Day is updated, click on the link to the right under KC Weather Blog Links.

Weather Cast PLUS

 
Weather Cast PLUS Video is updated:
 
 
 

It has Began!

Good early Morning,
 
It is 2:30am,and the freezing rain has started falling here in Olathe,KS at my place. Radar is showing freezing drizzle to Freezing rain developing east and south of here. Just north of a warm front, which will move through around 12-1pm and warm up temps to around 52 degrees. If you have any storm reports please tell me.
More updates on the way!!
Andrew
 
 

Friday, November 30, 2007

From the National Weather Service...

Freezing Rain Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
619 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING VERY COLD AIR WHICH HAS MOVED
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WARMER AIR AND
PRECIPITATION WILL SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TONIGHT. WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT GROUND LEVEL
AND WARM AIR RUNNING OVER TOP OF THIS AIR MASS...FREEZING RAIN
AND POCKETS OF SLEET WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
ADJACENT NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY ICY CONDITIONS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. AREAS NORTH OF A ST JOSEPH
TO MACON LINE WILL LIKELY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.

KSZ103>105-MOZ028-029-037-302030-
/O.CON.KEAX.ZR.Y.0002.071201T0900Z-071201T1500Z/
LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-PLATTE-CLAY-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEAVENWORTH...KANSAS CITY KS...
OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...PARKVILLE...PLATTE CITY...WESTON...
LIBERTY...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...KANSAS CITY...INDEPENDENCE
619 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GREATER KANSAS CITY AREA STARTING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
OF SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY MID MORNING WITH THE FREEZING RAIN CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S BY
AFTERNOON AND MELT ANY ICE THAT REMAINS.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$


I'm busy this morning, I'll update the blog this afternoon.
Andrew


Thursday, November 29, 2007

Weekend storm update

GFS 00z, click to enlarge

Good Evening,
There are Winter Storm Watches for Northern Missouri and Northwest Kansas from Friday night until Saturday Night. It appears we will all see rain. :( Saturday Morning there could be some Freezing Rain, but a warm front will surge north allowing it to change all over to rain. For Snow Lovers (including myself) this is sad and frustrating. Maybe tomorrow the models will start changing their story with something we like. There is still a small chance that the storm track could shift to the south,which would mean snow. But is is not looking good!! Will the Arctic Air get it's act together? Will the Storm Track Shift? These are questions that remain to be answered. To see pictures from my Florida trip just look below at the last blog entry.**
Andrew
** I am a Jurassic Park Fan!**

Trip pics!

Good Afternoon,

I'll will update the blog when the new data rolls in, and talk about this weekends’ storm. But for now here are a few pictures from my Florida trip!! I'll try to get more, as I have 3-4 CD ROM's full of photos from the beach, theme parks, etc. Click any of them to enlarge them.
Above: My Dad with the Universal Studios "World" behind him
Below: My Dad pretending to get shocked by a electric fence

Below: Me standing in front of the Jurassic Park car, with the Spino behind it.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Weekend storm?

Good Wednesday Morning,

I had a great vacation to Florida last week, now I'm back and am hoping for some snow this weekend!! I'll post pictures later this afternoon. I will update Weather Cast PLUS Tomorrow, As soon as I get out of vacation mode. Later this afternoon, I will have more on that possible weekend storm. Hope everybody had a great Thanksgiving. If you have any photos from last week of our first snowflakes email them to me at stafandt@earthlink.net or kcweather@tornadochaser.every1.net Hope you like the NEW Link Section on the right side of the blog. If you have any links you want me to add, just email me at one of the above email addresses.

Have a Great Day!

Andrew

 
 
 

Thursday, November 15, 2007

First chance of Snow?

Good Morning,
 
New data continues to show a storm system and colder air coming in for next week. Could we see our first 1"+ of snow? maybe. I update this blog this afternoon. I'm planning to update Weather Cast PLUS today also. I am leaving tomorrow night to go to Florida for the week. The winds will die down from 15-20 mph to 5-10mph this afternoon.
 
Have a Great Thursday!
Andrew

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

HIGH FIRE DANGER Watch

Good Evening,
Below is from the National Weather Service about a High Fire Danger Watch for Tomorrow. Please read!! I'll have more tomorrow on this Cold Front as it will push through around 1-2am. Andrew
FIRE WEATHER WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 328 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2007
...HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS.
BECAUSE COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS PLUMMET THROUGH THE 20S.
THIS WILL YIELD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO OR BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LASTLY...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS FAILED TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS...
WITH 10 HOUR FUEL STICK MOISTURES NOW DROPPING BELOW 7 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THESE VARIABLES WILL COMBINED TO PRODUCE HIGH FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>024-028>031-037-038- 043-140530-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FW.A.0001.071114T1600Z-071115T0000Z/
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE- JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-
GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER- PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR- BUCHANAN-CLINTON-C
ALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY- CARROLL-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-CASS- 328 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2007
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...AS WELL AS ADJACENT EASTERN KANSAS...ON WEDNESDAY.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR.
LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.
$$ BOOKBINDER


Monday, November 12, 2007

Big Bust

Click to enlarge image below
Good morning,

Take a look at the Surface map from around 10:06am this morning. You can see that the very weak cold front has moved thru the area. The rain chance has now been dropped to a 30%. Rain showers have been developing south of here around Clinton,Mo, scattered rain showers are possible for rest of the day. If we do not see any rain today, this will be the 17th day in a row of no rain!! KCI is now -5.36" for the year. We need about 6.00" of rain to get back up to average. There is a storm showing up for next, I'll blog later this afternoon about this next storm system. I'll be gone from Friday the 16th to Saturday the 24th, because I'm going to Florida for vacation!!! Have a Great Monday! Please tell me if you do get any rain!

Andrew

Sunday, November 11, 2007

A Cold Front heading our way

Click to enlarge (NAM)
Good Sunday Afternoon,

Take a look a the latest NAM, you can see it show the cold front pushing thru between 6-8am on Monday. Rain chances are at a 60% chance. After the front pushes on thru, the High (blue H) will move right on top of us Tuesday Night. This will Allow calm winds and temperatures to drop to around 38. Then Wednesday Night looks to be cold to with a low of 30. With more Canadian Cold front s on their way, we will, see lows, Thursday through Saturday in the mid to upper 20s. Still no sign of our first chance of snow, when do you think our first 1"+ of snow will fall? Vote on our Poll, which is on the right side. Hope you like both the blogs and KC Weather web site's new look!!

Andrew

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Cloudy and a Chance of Rain

The clouds are in for the night and your Sunday. Dewpoints are going up, as a warm front starts moving through the area tonight, with this front there is a 20% chance of rain Sunday morning. We will warm up in the 70s tomorrow!! A 60% chance rain Sunday Night into Monday as Cold Front moves through the area. Tuesday Highs will only be in the mid to upper 40s, Tuesday night, lows will drop to around 33-34 degrees. Still no sign of a snow storm yet.
Have a great Sunday! Go Chiefs!! I update the blog around 9pm-9:30pm tonight!
 
Andrew
 
 
 

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Weather Cast PLUS is updated

Good Wednesday Morning,
 
You can see the updated Weather Cast Plus video down below at Weather Cast PLUS 24/7 TV .
I'll update this blog later in the afternoon. Stay warm!!
 
Andrew
 
 

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

It's Peak Colors!

Good Morning,
 
It is freezing out there,which is good for the Fall colors. Send in your Fall Foilage Pictures to me, and I will put them on Weather Cast Plus!!! Email me the pictures at kcweather@tornadochaser.every1.net or at stafandt@earthlink.net !! Tonight will be another Cold Night with Lows in the 20s.
 
Have a Great Day!
Andrew 
 

Friday, October 26, 2007

Nice Weekend Ahead!



Good Friday Evening,

The above image is the Water Vapor Satellite, the red L is the Upper Level Low that is slowly spinning away from us and the cloud will eventually leave too! We have a North Westerly wind with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Sunday Night we could have a frost with lows around 33 degrees. The storm has also brought rain in the drought stricken areas, with rain from Michigan to Florida!!Stay Warm!

Andrew

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Interesting Pattern

Good Tuesday Evening,
 
Interesting changes are happening, cooler air with highs in the 50s and mid 60s will be for the rest of the week. Uless, the ULL (UPPER LEVEL LOW) down in the South East starts moving North East, which I think it will. This would result with a day or two with highs in the low 50s and lows in the upper 30s. And this would also mean, a cold rain which stands at a 30% for Thursday Night into Friday. New Data will be coming in around 9pm or so. I'll try to update the blog, after it is in. I will not be here tomorrow, I am going down to Branson,MO and Silver Dollar City for the day Wednesday.
 
Enjoy the cooler fall like Temps!
Andrew
 

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Some Rain Showers and Windy

Good Afternoon,
 
There is a 70% chance of some rain showers later this afternoon, the big event will be windy conditions with wind Gust up to 45mph!! Right now our next chance of rain is early next week. As more data comes in, I will talk about it more.
PLEASE SNED IN YOUR RAIN TOTALS FOR THIS WHOLE WEEK, INCLUDING SATUDAY'S RAIN TOTALS! THANKS!
 
Andrew

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Severe Weather update 1:50pm


Good Afternoon,

A Flash Flood Warning for Douglas County,KS, Franklin County,KS, and Osage County KS has just been issued until 4:45pm. 1-2"+ fell there in only 30 minutes. WOW!! Take a look at image from First Alert Storm Scan Doppler Radar at 1:46pm, Heavy Rain continue around the KC area. As for the Severe Weather threat, we still have a Slight Risk for now, but we have to watch very carefully as some very strong T-Storms around Chanute,KS is moving North East and could effect us. I think they should weaken as they enter our stable, cooler atmosphere. Please Send in your Rain Totals, your Severe Weather Reports, and if you see any peeks of sun. If the Sun does come out, which I don't think it will, then our Severe Weather chances go up a little bit. Stay Safe! I'll keep you updated on this blog. Next update around 4pm.
Andrew

Severe Weather Update 9:40am

click to enlarge
Good Morning,

Look at the above image of First Alert Storm Scan Doppler Radar, the storms are almost here!! Rain Totals will be from 1"-3"+!! A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for most of our viewing area including the following:

  • Leavenworth County,KS
  • Wyandotte County, KS
  • Johnson County,KS
  • Miami County,KS
  • Platte County,MO
  • Clay County,MO
  • Jackson County,Mo
  • Cass County,Mo
The watch goes until 1am tonight, right the only counties in our viewing area that are not in the Flash Flood Watch is Douglas County,KS, and Franklin County,KS.
I have also painted on the radar the Severe Weather Threat, for now the Moderate Risk is 55 miles South of KC, the rest of us are under a Slight Risk. There might be some Large Hail, or Damaging Winds, but the Tornado Threat is way South of here. I'll keep you updated throughout the day. The Next update will be around 11:30am.

Have a Great Day!
Andrew

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Severe Weather Wednesday?

(Click to enlarge)
Good Tuesday Evening,

Take a look at the above image, As you can seen we are in a SLIGHT RISK of Severe Weather with a MODERATE RISK just South and West of us, I think we will be having rain all day tomorrow which will help minimize the threat. We could still see some Large Hail, and Damaging Winds, but I think the threat for Tornado's will stay west and south of us. Salina,KS, and Oklahoma City have a better chance for Tornado's than us. Check tomorrow morning as new overnight data will be in. I'll keep you updated all day tomorrow, so make sure you keep checking this blog, and tell others about the blog. I'm updating the 5 Day Forecast right now, and will be uploading it to the KC Weather Site.

Be Safe,
Andrew

Thursday, October 11, 2007

The Discussion Continues

Good Thursday Morning,
 
Our next chance of rain is Saturday! It was chilly this morning, but unfortunately no chance of snow yet. :(
The Discussion from our last blog entry continues Today. Don't forget to Do the Poll on the Left:
Do you believe in Global Warming? AFTER VOTING CLICK ON COMMENTS AND POST A COMMENT SAYING WHY YOU BELIEVE OR DO NOT BELIEVE IN GLOBAL WARMING.
 
Two more reasons I don't believe in Global Warming:
 
1.Why would our wonderful Creator make Fossil Fuels and other stuff for us to use for energy, if it harms the Atmosphere?
 
2. Even when the earth warms up, there are special proceses that go on to cool the earth. I call it the "Automated Atmosphere Air Conditioner", The Clouds can act as a blanket keeping the earth warm, but they also help cool the earth by having the water droplets form into raindrops and then it rain on the earth, not just cleaning the earth, but also, cooling the earth down. And clouds also reflect sunlight back into outer space which helps cool the earth. So, even of Global Warming was real, there would be more clouds, that would cause it to rain and reflect sunlight back into outer space which would cool the earth.
 
I'll try to update Weather Cast later this Afternoon!! Have a Great Thursday,
Andrew
 

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Global Warming

Good Tuesday Morning,
 
I would like to start this topic up with your opinions, Do you believe in the Global Warming Theory?
 
THIS IS MY OPINIONS AND BELIEFS ONLY:
  • I do not believe in Global Warming
  • I believe that the Ice Caps are melting because of natural causes
  • I believe that we can't know the real averages since weather recording started in the 1800s...
  • I believe we would have to go back to the beginning of the world to find out the real Temperature averages.

Below is from the following website: www.evangelsociety.org/sherk/wwjd.html

"...The Historical Record
The observed climate record of the past century represents one of the major flaws in the global warming theory. During the 20th century human emissions of CO2 grew rapidly, with most of that increase following the Second World War. According to the theory, this should have caused temperatures to rise over the past century, with most of that increase coming after World War II. Surface measurements reveal that the earth's temperature rose approximately 0.6�C during the 20th century, but this warming does not match the theoretical predictions. Most of the warming, 0.4�C, took place before the early 1940's, before the release of most man-made CO2 into the atmosphere. Then, until the late 1970's, while human emissions of CO2 rose rapidly, the earth actually cooled approximately 0.1�C, only to rise by another 0.3�C by the end of the century. Surface temperature records reveal almost no correlation between human CO2 emissions and temperature increases. The majority of the temperature increase took place before CO2 levels rose substantially, then the temperature decreased while CO2 emissions rapidly rose, only to reverse the trend and slightly increase by the end of the century.(3) Understandably, the history of actual human CO2 emissions and the temperature record does little to support the global warming theory.

However, climatologists base this temperature record on surface measurements from ground stations. Scientists know that these records suffer from a systematic bias that tends to increase the temperature they record, the urban "heat island" effect. Many ground-monitoring stations are located in areas that have grown into major cities. The high volume of human activity, and asphalt, which tends to trap heat, that a city contains raises the temperature of a city several degrees above that of the surrounding countryside. Consequently, temperature measurements taken in or near a city are noticeably higher than those taken in a rural area, and this bias shows up in the surface record.(4)

Fortunately, for the past quarter century scientists have an alternative climate record unaltered by the heat island effect, the satellite record. Since 1979, satellites orbiting the globe have recorded the earth's temperature using instruments with an accuracy of �0.01�C. These more accurate satellite sensors show that, except for a one-year warming spike in 1998 caused by El Nino, the earth's average temperature did not rise between 1979 and 2000.(5) Temperature measurements from weather balloons corroborate these findings, which cast further doubt on the global warming theory. While atmospheric carbon dioxide has steadily risen, the most accurate measurements available show that the global temperature did not increase over the past two decades.

Still, the best records available suggest that global temperatures rose slightly over the past century. However, this is hardly unusual. Global temperatures naturally change, and have done so for thousands of years before the invention of the internal combustion engine. Over just the past millennia, global temperatures swung by several degrees. During the Middle Ages, in the medieval climate optimum, temperatures averaged one to two degrees higher than today's levels. During this time, Greenland was actually green, and supported vibrant Viking settlements. Following this warm period, and lasting into the mid 1800's, came the so-called "Little Ice Age," during which global temperatures dropped noticeably below today's levels. Since the 1850's, temperatures have risen as the earth left the mini-ice age.(6) These climate swings occurred as a result of natural processes, long before humans began emitting significant amounts of CO2. The fact that the earth has warmed by half a degree centigrade over the past century hardly represents an unusual historical occurrence or evidence that human activity has altered the climate..."   

PLEASE ENTER YOUR OPINION/BELIEF! I will try to updated Weather Cast Plus this Afternoon, I have been busy.

Andrew

 

Thursday, October 4, 2007

The Weekend Storm

Good Evening,
 
The weekend storm is odd, new data will be coming in soon, so I'll hopefully update the blog after the new data comes in. We have a good chance of rain Sunday Night into Monday. How much rain? Right now to hard to say, but I would say maybe 0.25" to 0.50" is possible. I will keep you updated!
 
Have a Great Evening,
 
Andrew
 
 
 

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

A Gloomy Tuesday


Good Afternoon,

Look at First Alert Storm scan Doppler Radar (click to enlarge), you can see very Heavy Rain coming towards KC. This could be Round 1, as the Cold Front is lagging behind. The 2nd Round could be severe, I'll keep you updated on the blog!! Send your Rain Totals!!

Have a Great Tuesday,
Andrew

Monday, October 1, 2007

Tuesday Rain up to 100%



Good Evening,

The chance for widespread rain tomorrow is up to a 100% chance. There is a SLIGHT RISK of Severe Weather, with main threats being Large Hail, and Damaging Winds. Rain Totals will be between .50"- 1.50" , with Localized 2"+. So some Flooding could be a problem. Then our next storm system we look out for, which will come in around Saturday, which could drop our High temperatures in the 50s or 60s!! That could also be a Heavy Rain producer. I think could be a better chance for Severe Weather on Saturday with the potent system. Above is the 5 Day Forecast, and Future Cast for Tomorrow.

Have a Great Night, I'll update the blog tomorrow, and hopefully even Weather Cast.

Andrew

Sunday, September 30, 2007

Severe T-Storm Watch until 8pm

Good Afternoon,
 
A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect until 8pm tonight. Please Watch the Weather out there. There is a small chance of a Tornado,but mostly just damaging winds, and large hail are the main threats, you can listen to the NOAA NWS Weather Radio on the KC Weather website by clicking on Live NOAA Weather Radio.
 
Be safe,
Andrew

Saturday, September 29, 2007

70% Chance of rain Sunday

Good Saturday Evening,
 
I have upped the chance of rain for tomorrow to a 70% chance. I expect a good wipespread 0.50"-0.75', with isolated 1"+. Please Send in your Rain totals tomorrow. I will try to update the 5 Day Forecast tomorrow as there is another good chance of rain around Tuesday. The race will still go on tomorrow with T-storms around 2pm or so, it should only rain for about and hour or so, as the Cold Front is a fast mover.
 
Have a Great 2nd Half of the Weekend,
 
Andrew 
 
 

Friday, September 28, 2007

50% chance of Rain Sunday

below- GFS 7pm Sun, click to enlarge
Good Friday Evening,

The weather is going to be great this weekend, at least, most of it anyway. Above is the GFS for Sunday at 7pm. It has the Cold Front coming in around 7pm, which would me some stronger storms are possible, but the NAM has it come in the Morning hours around 7am. I am staying with Afternoon to early evening scenario. New data will be coming in soon, and I will update the blog Tomorrow on what I think it will do. There is another Cold Front on the way for Tuesday, I am getting confident in the rain chances for that one as well, which already up to a 50% chance of T-storms. We in what is called the Second Severe Weather Season, so we will keep you updated!

Have a Great Friday night,
Andrew