Saturday, December 29, 2007

Snow Totals and Grading time

Good Saturday Morning,
Here are some snowfall reports, please send in yours!

Marceline, MO: 3.8-4"

Smithville, MO: 2.75-4"

St. Joseph, MO: 3.5"

Trenton, MO: 3.2"

Fort Leavenworth: 3.25"

Roeland Park, KS: 3.0"

Independence, MO: 2.5-3"

Overland Park, KS: 2.5-3"

Stanley, KS: 2.9"

Olathe, KS: 2.8"

Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center(Olathe): 2.7"

KCK: 2-2.5"

Moberly, MO: 1.9"

Lee's Summit, MO: 1.6"

Harrisonville, MO: 1.3"

Sedalia, MO: 0.50 to near 1"

It's grading time! What do you rate this snowfall forecast? Grade the Snowfall forecast from the last post below.


Thursday, December 27, 2007

Snow Storm update:11:15pm 1st SnowFall Forecast

Above is the Snow Fall Forecast, I think that 2"-3" KC and North. 4"+ North of KCI. Below is the radar showing increasing snow in Emporia,KS. Have to watch this closely as this may lead to enhanced snowfall totals.

Send in you Snow reports!

Did you have a Merry Christmas?

Good Evening,
Hope you had a good Christmas. We had Snow Today! 1.0"-1.4" were reported. Now we have our next storm system to watch which could bring us 1-4" of snow. This will affect us on Thursday Night. I'll will also be doing a blog in the next couple day on the true reason for Christmas! So, stay tuned!

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Grading Time

Good Afternoon,
Here's a quick little project for you guys to do:
- Grade yesterday's Snow Forecast (the Final Forecast from the 3:45pm blog post below)
- Send in your snowfall reports
I'll blog more on our next storm system,plus, Snow Fall Totals, later tonight,
Merry Christmas,

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Update: 3:45pm

Good Afternoon,

Here is the look at the radar (click to enlarge)from around 3:39pm:

The comma head is going to come thru between 5-8pm. Thunder Snow with 1-2"/hr snowfall rate is possible. Here is the latest and final Snowfall Forecast:

Send in your Snow fall totals tonight, Thanks!

Update: 1:15pm

Good Afternoon,

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the KC Metro Area.
The radar image below is from 12:57pm, I drew where it appears the Snow Line is at. The Snow Line is moving at 20mph to the South and Southwest. By 2pm everybody in the KC Metro should be in the Snow. Very Heavy Snow with Strong Winds, and some Thunder Snow is possible.
click to enlarge

Here is the latest Snow Fall Forecast, I am getting a little worried as the snow line seems to have slowed down a little bit, but I'm keeping with this forecast.
click to enlarge

Send in your Snow Reports!

Snowfall Forecast

Good late Evening,

It's currently 12:12am, the first day of Winter as official arrived!! Below (click to enlarge) is the Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory, which I do expect will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, maybe even a Blizzard Warning as winds will gust tomorrow afternoon from the NE at 25-30mph. Add that with the Moderate to Heavy Snow Showers; we could see white-out conditions.

Now onto the Snowfall Forecast below (click to enlarge) the 00z data seems to have the bullseye right on Kansas City, so I'm going with 5"-7"+ possible. Right now I lean to the 5" range with locally heavier amounts of 6"+. Right now the chance for a White Christmas is up to a 70% chance!!

I'll have more in about 8-10 hours!!

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Snow Likely? A White Christmas?

Good Evening,

I have just updated the 5 Day Forecast on the website. Below is the 00z GFS valid at 6pm Saturday, it forecast for the southern storm to be a little stronger before phasing into the northern storm system. I have put the forecasted track of both storms to where they both phase into one big storm.
click to enlarge
As for the White CHRISTmas, the chance is up to a 30% as there is another storm system forecasted to develop and swing south of us. So, after 10-20 years of Brown Christmases could we finally have a white one? We'll will see.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Another SnowStorm?

Quick Update on Saturday's Storm,

The 00z data has the storm system coming in just south of here, which would mean snow. But, there is a Upper Level Low (ULL) which will phase the storm system that could affect us and make one big ULL just north of here. More tomorrow. The 5 Day Forecast is updated.


Monday, December 17, 2007

Update:11pm Another Storm System for this weekend?

Good Evening,

Above is the NWS Estimated Snow Totals (click to enlarge). After lowering the totals Saturday Afternoon to 3-5" which was just about right. I rate the forecast a C-. I should of known not to go for 7-8" of Snow. The Storm System was just too weak, and now it has became a BIG Northeaster !! I am updating the 5 Day Forecast Finally, and I'll have it ready and online between 10:15pm and 10:30pm. We have another Storm System coming toward us for next weekend. The questions are:
  • Will the storm track North or South of KC?
  • If the storm tracks south:
  • Will it be cold enough for snow?
  • Will it be cold enough throughout the atmosphere for snow?
  • Could it be Freezing Rain/Sleet?
Update: Take a look at the new GFS (click to enlarge), valid on Saturday at 6am,it shows the forecast track for the storm system to be a little bit more southerly, this would mean SNOW again for the weekend!! This is still a few days away, so lets see what the trend is tomorrow. Have you Noticed? All the weekends,so far,in December have had either Rain, Snow,Sleet, or Freezing rain!! Amazing!

Have a Great Night!

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Snow Storm update: 11:30am

Good Late Morning,

Take a look at the radar, Light to Moderate Snow continues through the area.
With a few Heavy pockets.
Click to enlarge

So far here at the Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center: 1.4" of Snow, there has also, been some freezing Drizzle!! WOW!! Super Cooled droplets are still becoming drizzle mixed with snow. The whole Atmosphere is below 32 degrees! Amazing. We still might be able to get a Snow to total of 3-5"+. Send in your Snow Reports and later I'll make a list of Snow Totals! Thanks!

Friday, December 14, 2007

Snow Storm update: 11:00pm

Good Evening,

Here is the latest Snowfall Forecast:

And here is the radar with a path cast on it:

I do not like the latest radar trends, I'm hoping that I'm right about the above snow fall Forecast. More on this tomorrow. Send in your Snow Totals, Please! Click the maps to enlarge them.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Snow Forecast for Friday Night through Saturday

Click to enlarge map
Good Evening,

Here is the Snowfall Forecast for Tomorrow night. I do think 7-10"+ is possible. We do have A Winter Storm Watch for Friday Night through Saturday Afternoon. I'll have more tomorrow, as things can and will change fast.

Things thaw just a bit, but......

Good Mid-Morning,
Things are starting thaw out finally. This won't last long, tomorrow night, we have snow coming and KC could see 3-4"+. The farther north you the less you get. The farther south you the more you get. I'll have an update when the new data comes out. Send in your Ice Storm photos: .

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

WOW! ICE STORM is almost over.

click to enlarge

The Ice Storm is almost over, overnight there will be a North wind 10-15 mph, some Light Freezing Drizzle/Rain and/or Snow Flurries. Temperatures as of 8:48pm are just at 32 degrees. The Sidewalks,Decks, and surfaces will freeze tonight. The Main Roads will stay fine, but the Side Roads will be slick. We were so close to having a Major Ice Storm, but temperatures were just enough above freezing to keep today's rain mainly a cold, soaking rain!! As you can see on the map above, provided by the National Weather Service in Kansas City:
  • KC and South of I-70 had 1/4" of Ice.
  • KC and North of I-70 has 1/4"-1"+.
Saint Joseph has see alot of devastation with Power Lines everywhere, Power Outages everywhere, tree branches, and whole trees all over the place.
Now South I-70 there were scattered Power Outages, the Weather Cast Plus Weather Center did not have a power outage, but we did have some damage.
There still could be some problems tonight as the Winds pick up from the North 10-15 mph. And as temperatures start falling, Freezing Drizzle could cause a little bit more ice accumulation of 1/10" or Less. Here is a photo I took of the damage, here at the Weather Cast Plus Weather Center:

(click to enlarge). Send in your ICE STORM photos to me:


Monday, December 10, 2007

Ice Storm Update:11:38pm

Update: 12:12 am
Click to enlarge radar image above. This is what will happen for the remainder of the night. Read the entry from 11:38pm for more info.
Temperatures have warmed up to around 32 degrees, this will help with the ice accumulations. This appears that it will not be a major ice storm. It still is causing problems, scattered power outages are happening across the area. Please Send in your photos and you ICE reports:
I'll have more tomorrow. A ICE STORM Warning is still in effect until midnight late tuesday night.
At the Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center 11:35pm:
Temp: 32.5 F
Dewpoint: 28.5 F
Humidity: 85%
Winds: 0 mph East
Precip: 0.08"
ICE Accumulation Estimated: .10"-.15" or less. Power Lines,and trees sagging a little bit.
Be Safe!

Sunday, December 9, 2007

We are not done yet! Major ICE Storm?

UPDATE: 10:40pm

The Latest (above,click to enlarge) GFS 36 hour precip shows a wet solution! It also continues to say that the temps. will be around 33-35 degrees. That would be just enough above freezing to keep us from a ice storm. But I think it will colder than around 28 degrees, because of the snow pack and ice pack that is around us. I'll have more tomorrow!
Good Evening,
New Data is rolling in and I will update the blog with maps. Right now, Monday looks to be dry and COLD. But Monday Night through Tuesday we could be set up for a MAJOR ICE STORM. The National Weather Service has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for the whole KC Metro Area from Monday evening through Tuesday. Freezing Rain looks likely. Here are some tips from PK in LS on the NBC Action Weather PLUS blog:
"Getting ready for an ice storm is a matter of some common sense.

If you lose your electricity, you need to know how the power company determines the order of getting your power restored. It is not in the order it goes off. Repairs are determined by how many homes/businesses a single fix will get back on. So if you have buried powerlines and all of your neighborhood is out, that is a good thing. That means the trouble is on a large line or substation or transformer. If you are the only one in your neighborhood without power, you're going to be off a while. That means the problem is in your service from the mainline to your house. And that is a single repair that gets on a single home. You will be at the end of the line. If your service to your house is buried, you are in better shape to stay on than if your service line is above ground.

In case you are curious, my grandfather, father, and brother all worked for the power companies.

If your house is properly insulated, your pipes will not freeze. If you are concerned about them, leave a trickle of hot water running.

Stock up on food that does not need to be heated to be eaten.

Just because electricity goes off does not mean your natural gas is affected.

If all your house phones are handheld receivers, they need electricity to run. Make certain your cellphone is fully charged.

If you lose power, do NOT open up your freezer. Food stays frozen a lot longer in a closed freezer than you can imagine.

Fill up your cars with gas tomorrow."
I'll have another update soon.

Saturday, December 8, 2007

Winter/ICE Storm update 11:45pm

Take a look at the radar from 11:30pm:

As expected Freezing Rain is increasing and as you can see there are some Lighting icons showing up. So there could be some Thunder freezing rain!! Ice Accumulations are going to be a little lower because the precip. has just started to really fire up. About .10"-.15" can be expected in the KC Area. Farther South you go, Ice accumulations will be around .25"-.50". Be careful and have a great night.

Winter/ICE Storm update 7:00pm

Latest Winter Weather Advisory clik to enlarge
As you can see above there is now and Ice Storm Warning for just south and east of KC. We could see .10-.25" of Ice. The counties in the ICE Storm Warning could see .25-.50" of Ice. So be careful out there. For Road Conditions Refer to the Last blog post below. I'll have more updates as soon as the 00z data comes out. Below is a picture of the Ice from Brent in Harrisonville,MO. Send in your reports and pictures to me: . For Ice reports just comment.
click to enlarge photo

Winter/ICE Storm update 10:00am

Above: Surface Map 10:30am click to enlarge

Good Morning,

A ICE STORM WARNING is very likely for Tonight into Sunday Afternoon. Freezing Drizzle has glazed the area a little bit with Ice. Already Colder Temperatures are invading the area, temps will slowly drop into the 20s, Freezing Drizzle will continue through this afternoon. This Evening into Sunday Afternoon is when I expect the Heaviest precip. Ice accumulation will be around .25"-.50" . Winds will also be a factor, as they will be from the N at 10-20mph. Please send in any pictures to me: . Please give me your ice reports too. Click on Comments then Post Comments. Please Be careful out there, as I435 is already closed down because of some accidents. Here is the link to the KC Scout Network (cameras,traffic,etc):

For Kansas City:

For Kansas Roads:


For Missouri:


800-222-6400 ROADS

I'll have more later.


Friday, December 7, 2007

Winter Storm Watch

Good Afternoon,
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Afternoon. It will likely be extended Sunday Night as this storm appears to hang on for 5-7 days! A Major Ice Storm seems to be Likely. Weather Cast PLUS video is updated for Todays Forecast. I'll have more after the 18z data comes out. Check out the post below from this morning.

Arctic COLD Front/Complex Weekend Storm

As you can see from the above maps (click to enlarge) another shot of reinforcing Arctic Air is on it's way. It will be modified just a little bit,as it moves through Tonight. There is a growing snow pack up north and this snow pack will play a little roll in what will happen this weekend. Below is the 850 mb (4000-5000 Ft above earths surface) temps forecast. (click to enlarge) That big thick blue that is over KC or just north of KC is the 32F degree line or the freezing line. This is really important because the warmer air just above the surface, would the melt the snow into rain, but because it appears for right now that Temperatures will be around 32 degrees or below. We could see Freezing Rain,Sleet,Rain,or Snow. It could be a major Ice Storm,but right now this is a Very Complex Storm System. I'll have more later when the 18z data comes out.

Be Safe! And send in your weather photos to .

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Winter Storm Update: 3:30pm Things are winding down

Well, Take a look at the radar, (click to enlarge) and you can see the back edge has made through Olathe, Kansas City, St. Joseph, and Paola,etc. The focus now turns to the weekend forecast, new data is coming out and I'll have more tonight around 9:30pm or so.

Snowfall Totals so Far:

2.0" St. Joseph,MO
1.5" Smithville, MO
1.2" Lawrence,KS

1.2" Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center
1.0" Olathe,Ks
1.0" Raymore,MO

PLEASE Send in your Snow Totals and Snow Pictures! I hope to have an updated Snow Totals tonight.
Predictions of 1-2"+ were right on. I'm am updating Weather Cast PLUS and hope to get it online soon. We will go down to around 27 degrees tonight with maybe a couple of Flurries.


Winter Storm Update: 11:25am

It is coming down real hard, I can't find my "Snow ruler" so estimating about 1" has fell,here at the Weather Center. You can see on the radar Heavy Snow will continue with about 2-3" for the Total. Send in your measurements and any Pictures that you have taken!


Winter Storm Update: 9:15am

click to enlarge above image
Update: 9:30am It's snowing in Olathe at the Weather Cast Plus Weather Center!
A report just came in that snow is falling in Lawrence. There still could be a mix. Stay tuned.
It's not snowing yet! Take a look at First Alert Storm Scan Doppler from 8:56am. Right now none of the precip. is falling in KC right now. It appears that the Snow Line, where the snow and/or Freezing Rain or Sleet is Falling. Notice that Lawrence reported at 8:52am a mix of Snow/Sleet. Should start changing over soon. Please Send in your reports through out the day. Is it snowing in your area yet? What is it doing in your area?

More updates coming!
Be Safe!

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Our First 1"+ of Snow Likely!

UPDATE: The NWS has included us in the Snow Advisory. Look Above at warning map. Click to enlarge.
You read that right! I'm am updating the 5 Day right now. Be online around 10:15/30. The snow/mix line will be likely 50-60 miles south of KC. We are in a Winter Weather Advisory while up North in St. Joesph is in a Snow Advisory. I expect the National Weather Service to put us in the Snow Advisory when they update their forecast. Right now it looks like 2-3" in KC. 2-4" in North of KC. We could see it turn to a Mix as I think it will get up to around 34 degrees. Stay Tuned! Things are changing for the weekend. More tomorrow morning!


Weather getting Exciting!!

Finally! Things are getting exciting, We could see Snow tomorrow or a mixed bag, it's tricky. But the NEW GFS wants to paint a big glob of precip. Where will the Rain/Snow Line be? That remains unanswered. The chance for precip is now up to a 60%! I'll will try to update Weather Cast PLUS today, but I am a little busy today. Then this weekend is even interesting, Arctic Air will continue to get stronger. With a growing snowpack up north, we could see Snow, Freezing Rain, and Sleet this weekend. Stay Tuned, I will have another update when the 18z data comes in!


Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Snow? Freezing Rain? Rain? Sleet? Any of thes in the next few days?

Well,right now you can eliminate Freezing Rain,and Sleet. For Thursday the forecast still looks like rain, but could there be snow? Take a look at the latest NAM is does not looks good for rain or any precip. There could be light snow/rain by the Iowa/Missouri border.

Below is the surface data from 9:33pm today. That Cold Front up north will accelerate its way through us early tomorrow morning. Looking on to next week, we could see rain Saturday and Sunday. Another storm system comes Tuesday too. Could we see some Freezing Rain,Sleet, or Snow? Maybe, way too early to tell.

I'm updating the 5 Day, so it will be online between 10:15 and10:30pm.
Have a Great Night,

Monday, December 3, 2007

UPDATE: 9:30pm New Data on Thursday's Storm

Update: 9:30pm
Good Evening, Look below at the 500 MB Map Valid at 12pm on Thursday You can see a Upper Level Low in Northern Nebraska, and Southern South Dakota. this is a Very weak. Right now rain is all we will get. The chance stands at 30%. The map below the 500 Mb is the surface MSLP map it shows a little bit of rain nearby. There could be Thunder Storms Saturday Night! New Data continues to come in. update more on this tomorrow. Weather Cast PLUS is updated and the 5 Day Forecast, I'm about to Update.

3:15pm post:
The new data is not looking real good for Thursday, this system will be very weak, so maybe some Rain/Snow. It does not look like our first 1"+ of Snow for a while. This based on the 18z NAM, As soon as the 18z GFS comes out I'll update this blog. I do not like the trends though. I'll have more A.S.A.P. I'm getting ready to update Weather Cast PLUS.

Sunday, December 2, 2007

Thursday's Storm

Good Sunday Evening,

Take a look at the GFS (click to enlarge)Valid 6pm Friday:

The blue 540 line is where the rain/snow line is, as you can see it is just south of Kansas City. So could it be snowing Thursday and Friday? Right now Thursday looks like it will be a mix, some sleet, snow, and Rain is possible. Maybe even some Freezing Rain. This is still a few day away, so We'll have to what the New Data tomorrow has. The 5 Day Forecast has been updated, just click the links to your right. And Don't forget to sign up for the KC Weather Mailing list at KC Weather Website. Also, Check out Premium Weather, you can get a FREE 14 DAY Trial, or check out StormLAB Radar by Storm Alert Inc. Makes a Great CHRISTmas gift!!

Have a Great Night,

Saturday, December 1, 2007

5 Day updated

The Weather Cast PLUS 5 Day is updated, click on the link to the right under KC Weather Blog Links.

Weather Cast PLUS

Weather Cast PLUS Video is updated:

It has Began!

Good early Morning,
It is 2:30am,and the freezing rain has started falling here in Olathe,KS at my place. Radar is showing freezing drizzle to Freezing rain developing east and south of here. Just north of a warm front, which will move through around 12-1pm and warm up temps to around 52 degrees. If you have any storm reports please tell me.
More updates on the way!!