Thursday, January 3, 2008

Warming Trend... but for how long?...

Good Thursday Evening,
We are in a warming trend through Sunday! We could see 60 degrees on Sunday!! The SPC has issued a Severe Weather RISK for just south of us, for next Sunday, and Monday. WOW!! But we have not seen the worst of winter yet.
This is from Gary Lezak's Blog about the LRC:

THE LRC.......What is it?

For those of you new to NBC Action News and our weather blog, the LRC will be new to you.  It is a theory, and I  believe a major discovery in meteorology, that I have come up with in the past 20 years.  It was named by you, the bloggers!  LRC stands for Lezak's Recurring Cycle.  There are two main parts to my theory:

1.  "Long term" longwave troughs and ridges become established between October 1st and November 10th.  These longwaves will help define the storm tracks for, not just the winter, but from October through winter, spring, and the next summer, until the pattern morphs, transitions into a unique pattern again next fall.

2.  The weather pattern cycles and repeats over and over again.  The first cycle likely begins in October.  Once the weather pattern starts repeating, then we can "know" it better and begin making accurate long range predicitons.  We have been making these accurate predictions the past two years, some call it coincidence when our forecasts have come through.  But, last year we accurately predicted "the storm" to return every 45 days or so.  And, we predicted the killing April freeze weeks ahead of time, while other forecasts had predicted winter to be over.  Not only did we have the very bad freeze but "the storm" also returned right on schedule with a rare mid April snowstorm

LRC 2007-2008

We, at this moment, believe that we are in a 54 day cycle this year.  This was found in the first two weeks of December, when we noticed the October storm systems repeating.  If you look back in our blog entries from October, we were anticipating those big, wet storm systems to return, but we just weren't sure when.   And, now we "know" that they will be coming back and soon.  The series of 4 storm systems that happened from December 1st through December 21st will likely return between January 24th and February 15th.  We will  have our long range forecast, all the way through mid February, at the end of this entry when I get it prepared later today.

The warming trend moving in right now is right on schedule with this repeating pattern.  Look below at the weather map on November 10th, 2007 (54 days from January 3rd).  This is directly related to what is happening right now....

45 day forecast issued January 2nd:

January 3-15th:  There will be two big warming stretches that could put us up into the 60s a couple of days.  But, it will be broken up by two storm systems.  One of the storms will arrive around January 8th-9th.  This one will produce some rain and possibly some snow, but it is a storm that will intensify as it passes us.  The second storm will arrive around January 12th -15th.  This one could come as a very cold air mass is moving in from Canada.

January 15th-25th:

Arctic air will build in strength across Canada.  It will be the coldest air of this entire winter up there with temperatures possibly down to 40 degrees below zero or even lower.  A couple of strong Arctic fronts will move through Kansas City and the United States should go into the deep freeze before the end of the month.

January 25th -February 20th:

The series of wet and strong storm systems that affected us in October and again in December will return.  I think they will be even stronger this time.  And, the Arctic air will be around for each of the storm systems.  We will have at least 4, and perhaps as many as 7 storm systems between January 25th and February 20th.

This is how we see the pattern cycling right now.  This is a long range projection, based on the LRC.  We believe this is around a 54 day cycle.  So, this all will repeat again with the stormy and wet part of the pattern returning in the second half of March.  Another Arctic air mass is likely then, so watch out for a grand finale to this crazy winter before spring truely shows up.  Some parts of our viewing area could easily get close to 50 inches of snow this winter.

You can read more about this on the NBC Action Weather PLUS blog.

Have a Great Night!


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