

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...WRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 235...
VALID 060118Z - 060215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 235 CONTINUES.
CAP APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO SUSTAINED ASCENT WITHIN
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS SERN KS. CONVECTION...THOUGH
NOT EXPLOSIVE...HAS RECENTLY ATTAINED HEIGHTS SUFFICIENT FOR
LIGHTNING. CONTINUED UPWARD GROWTH OF THESE STORMS MAY RESULT IN
SUPERCELL EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF
WW235...ALTHOUGH EWD DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR INTO WCNTRL MO. IF
DEVELOPMENT DOES SPREAD EAST...A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.
..DARROW.. 05/06/2007
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
"The LRC"
Happy Monday everyone,
We have had a cloudy day so far with a cold front about to move through. Some light rain showers have formed but are ending already. You will know when the front moves through as the winds will pick up from the north and push the cloud cover south of us this afternoon. The clouds will stop moving south as the front stalls over Oklahoma tonight. Then, on Tuesday the front will force its way back northward and thunderstorms should be the result. So, Tuesday still looks like our best chance of rain between now and Wednesday.
After Wednesday a storm will be forming. Many of you have been following the LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) the past few months. Remember the theory: The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. The pattern then cycles through July before falling apart in August. Now, I believe this is a major discovery and we have evidence that clearly shows that this happens every year without question. And, every year is unique. The cycle is not determined until we have gone through one or two cycles. By December or January when we begin a second or third cycle we gain confidence to what the pattern truly is. But, before this time, and as early as November 1st or so we can determine where the "long term" longwaves are located. Go back into the archives from the past two years and look at October and November entries.