Thursday, January 31, 2008
The sun has been out in a few places. Here is the latest snowfall forecast, I'm expecting 1" or less. The storm system has dived to far south for us to get a good snowfall. We are under a Snow Advisory, but right now,I almost think it will be canceled. We are watching the radar with some Light to Moderate snow moving in from the South West, but 1" or less is all we'll get with this.
click to enlarge
I might update the blog on this winter storm one more time.
I would like to talk about how I think there is a Biblical Perspective on Weather.
About a year ago, I read a great book called "Weather and the Bible" by Donald B. Deyoung. It's a 100 Questions and Answers book. The 1st question was "Should a Christian become a Meteorologist?"
- One thing that I would do, that most Meteorologists don't do is give the Glory to God. After all He deserves the praise, and worship. He is the one who controls the weather, and the universe. He makes it possible for us to make great discoveries in Weather.
- God highly recommends the study of nature, and His creation:
" The heavens declare the glory of God; the skies proclaim the works of His hands." Ps. 19:1
" Go to the ant, you sluggard; consider its way and be wise." Prov. 6:6
- We need a new generation to rise up, and give the glory, and honor where it belongs.
- I believe the Bible is the true history book. I believe God created the universe in 6 days. (Genesis 1)
- God has done supernatural events in Weather; such as:
- The Genesis Flood (when the whole world was covered by Water)
- Fire from heaven upon Sodom and Gomorrah
- In the New Testament, Jesus calmed a storm; showing that He indeed controls the weather.
- From the book: "The creationist viewpoint see humanity as the culmination of the creation week. Planet earth was made for enjoyment and well-being. The water cycle and the cool breezes were planned for our benefit. The trees were made for our visual enjoyment, as well as for food. (Gen. 2:9)."
- Jesus speaks to the Pharisees and Sadducees about Weather proverbs.
� 1The Pharisees and Sadducees came to Jesus and tested him by asking him to show them a sign from heaven. 2He replied "When evening comes, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red,' 3and in the morning, 'Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.' You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times." Matt. 16:1-3
- Future Weather events are in the Bible:
- 100lb Hailstones will fall from the sky all over the earth during the 7 yr Tribulation. (Rev. 16:21)
- Fire will come down from heaven. (Rev. 13:13)
- The Winds will stop. (Rev. 7:1)
- There are a lot more future events predicted in the Bible just read Revelation.
- One of my favorite Bible passages which does not only describes God�s glory, but also talks a lot about weather. I call it the "Weather Passage".
" 1 The LORD reigns, let the earth be glad; let the distant shores rejoice. 2 Clouds and thick darkness surround him; righteousness and justice are the foundation of his throne. 3 Fire goes before him and consumes his foes on every side. 4 His lightning lights up the world; the earth sees and trembles. 5 The mountains melt like wax before the LORD, before the Lord of all the earth. 6 The heavens proclaim his righteousness, and all the peoples see his glory.� Psalm 97: 1-6
Well, that's pretty much a summary of weather in a Biblical perspective. I'll update the blog around 11:30am or Noon with the latest snowfall forecast.
Have a Great Day!
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Below is the snowfall forecast for Thursday, the 00z data is not looking good. This storm looks to be going to far south for KC to get much snow. 1-4" is looking less, and less likely. In fact, a Dusting to 1" is looking much better than 3"+. We'll see what happens with overnight data. I'll either update my snowfall forecast tomorrow or leave it. Depending on radar trends in the morning,where the storm system is located,etc. The snow will start somewhere around 6-11am in the morning. Probably around 9-10am.
click to enlarge
Have a Great Night,
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Friday, January 25, 2008
Weather Cast PLUS Video, and the 5 Day Forecast is updated. For tonight we will drop to around 25F, and tomorrow we will jump up to around 41F. This is the start of the 3 day Warm up;before another Arctic Cold Front comes through.
Here's Today's Almanac; I missed by 1 degree today for the High, and 9 Degrees for the LOW. Not bad, considering I'm still learning weather.
click to enlarge
Have a Great Weekend,
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Here's the Almanac for today:
click to enlarge
KCI is at 8F right now, I think we will make down to to around 0F or -1F. Then tomorrow a small,weak,fast-moving system will come by; there's a 100% chance for snow, and because the ground is so Cold, we could see a dusting to possibly 1"-2". I am updating the 5 Day Forecast right now, so it should be online around 10:30pm. Have you seen our new POLL to the left? Which weather extreme would you choose? 0 degrees? or 100 degrees? Cast you Vote!!
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Friday, January 18, 2008
It's Friday! The Arctic Front is moving towards us. take a look at the Surface map from around 10:30am. click to enlarge.
Here is the radar from that time, as you can see light to moderate snow showers have developed. I expect only 1/2" or less of accumulation. (click to enlarge)
I'll have more later,
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Good Evening, Here are some Snowfall totals from today:
- Gallatin, MO: 6.0"
- St. Joseph, MO: 3.5-5.0"
- Kearney, MO: 4.5"
- Plattsburg, MO: 4.2"
- Mound City, MO: 4.0"
- Platte City, MO: 3.5-4.25"
- Maryville, MO: 4.0"
- Smithville, MO: 4.0"
- Trenton, MO: 3.9"
- Overland Park, KS: 2.5-3.5"
- W. Shawnee, KS: 3.5"
- Lenexa, KS: 3-4"
- KCK: 3.25"
- Bonner Springs, KS: 3.5"
- Lawrence, KS: 2.5-3.7"
- Berryton, KS: 3.5"
- I-35 & N. Brighton Rd: 2.9"
- N.Oak & Barry Rd, MO: 2.5"
- Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center: 2.5"
- Grandview, MO: 2.0"
- Lee's Summit, MO: 1.75"
- Blue Springs, MO: 1.75"
- Belton, MO: 1.0-2.0"
- Pleasant Hill, MO: 1.0"
- Grain Valley, MO: 1.0"
- Gunn City, MO: 0.75-1.0"
- 10 mi. N. of Warrensburg, MO: 0.25"
- Sedalia, MO: Light Dusting
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
click to enlarge
9:30pm update: Good Evening,
Click the above image to see the radar loop from around 8:30pm to 8:45pm.
You can see that we'll in a little break from the snow for now, but Heavy Snow out in west central Kansas is heading our way. No changes have been made to the Snowfall forecast for now ( Scroll down to the 7pm update for the latest snowfall forecast). The new GFS is just starting to come out, and I will have another update with the latest Futurecast 3D, and more info on the Arctic Cold front that will be coming through on Friday.
Have a Great Night, and Send in you Snow totals, please.
It is still raining,but the rain/snow line is almost here!! Take a look at Futurecast 3D (click to enlarge,and animate) Between Now and 3 or 4pm it will be rain, but KCI is already seeing a mix. North of the metro it's changing over. South of the metro the changeover will occur around 3 or 4pm.
Below is the latest Snowfall Forecast (click to enlarge), not much has changed as you can see.
Here's the radar image from around 2:10pm, I drew in the Freezing Line
(snow/rain line). Click to enlarge.
More updates to come, if you start seeing snow, Report it!!
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Here's is the Snowfall Forecast:
click to enlarge
And here is a look at the latest Snow Advisory:
click to enlarge
It will be a battle against the Cold Air, and the Warm Air. It appears that it will be rain first for Kansas City, with some Snowflakes mixed in. North and North West of the Metro it appears they will see all snow again which means that they will get most of the snow. Around 7pm or 8pm Wednesday Night is when it will start changing over to snow. If this changeover occurs earlier than expected we could see more snow, if it occurs late than expected we will see less snow.
I'll have an update in the Morning,
Look at the GFS (12Z) QPF or Rainfall Forecast:
As you can see it shows .25-.50" of Liquid falls, this storm system for Wednesday will be a little rain, but this will really be 1-4"+ of Snow possible. As soon as the new 18z data comes out, I will make a Snowfall Forecast, it appears right now; that the heaviest snow will fall northwest of Kansas City. Areas like Saint Joseph, Topeka,Marysville,etc could see 3-4"+ of Snow easily. Kansas City Appears will see 1-2"+. Below is Futurecast 3D, click to enlarge and watch the animation.
I'll have more later this Afternoon/Early Evening.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
High 68F (1996)
Low -14F (1916)
Wow! Hard to believe it was 68 degrees back in 1996;But could you imagine a Low of 14 Below Zero!! That's Frigid!! And the Frigid air looks to be coming this way for the end of the Work week. Look below at the surface temperature map Valid Wednesday Night.
Click to enlarge
Wow! All the way up in Northern Canada temps 35 Below Zero!! Now the Arctic Cold Front will be on our doorstep Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning. The Arctic Air will be modified a bit with lows in the low Twenties and Highs in the low Thirties. I made a graphic (below) that shows what will happen Thursday as the Cold Air comes in. The Low will really be in Northern Canada by Hudson Bay, The High will be in northern Alberta;but I put on the map below just to show what happens.
click to enlarge
Have a Great Day! '
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Take a look at the latest radar image (click to enlarge):
You can the precip is coming to a end from West to east. We are getting drysloted at the ULL and Surface low move right over us. This will cause the winds to come from the North and the temperatures will start to come down, I do expect another band of precip to develop later this afternoon, if temperatures are cold enough, we could see some Snowflakes. As of 9:15am the Snowfall forecast from last night has not changed. Please Send in your Rain totals!
Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center Conditions 9:17am:
Temperature: 39.2 F
Humidity : 85%
Dewpoint : 35F
Winds : 5mph SSE
Rain Total : 0.34"
Another update around Noon!
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
The 5 day forecast is updated, so click on the link to the left. Now onto the forecast, tomorrow is hard to forecast. Will the Temperatures stay above freezing most of the day? I think they will, as they could get up close to 40 degrees. Then there could be a little bit of snow. Here's the Snow fall Forecast:
click to enlarge
The Light Dusting is still out on the Limb,and might be still little too far south, the best chance for 1"+ will be up by St. Joesph and points north. Here's a table of If the temperature is at that degrees what precipitation would fall:
35F : Rain/Snow (Mostly Rain)
34F : Snow/Rain (Mostly Snow)
33F or Below: Snow
I'll have an update tomorrow morning.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
A mix of Rain, and Snow is moves into the area. This appears to be a mostly rain event, but if temperatures can just drop a couple degrees to around 33-34 degrees, we could see some nice snow. It able to snow all way up through the atmosphere, except at the surface. If this occurs a very,very light dusting is all that could be expected. Ground Temperatures are still warm. Send in your Rain Totals from this morning, and any snow you saw. So far here at the Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center .30" of rain as fallen.
Update 2pm: Right now in Olathe, it's now Snowing!!
Monday, January 7, 2008
Above is the radar image from 9:14pm Tonight, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect south of the KC Metro area until 5am tonight. There has been a Tornado Outbreak in Springfield,Mo tonight. Reports are coming in of Roofs damaged, trees,power lines,and telephone pools down. This is Amazing to see a tornado outbreak in January, but it is not uncommon. We will see some Rain tomorrow, but it will be a Cold Rain, we could see some Snow,Sleet mixed in with the rain. The High today was 66 degrees here at the Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center!! A Cold Front has came through which is cooling us down. Right now the temperature is at 50 degrees. Have a great night! I will try to get the NEW and Improved 5 Day Forecast updated!!! Send in your Rain Totals.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Thursday, January 3, 2008
THE LRC.......What is it?
For those of you new to NBC Action News and our weather blog, the LRC will be new to you. It is a theory, and I believe a major discovery in meteorology, that I have come up with in the past 20 years. It was named by you, the bloggers! LRC stands for Lezak's Recurring Cycle. There are two main parts to my theory:
1. "Long term" longwave troughs and ridges become established between October 1st and November 10th. These longwaves will help define the storm tracks for, not just the winter, but from October through winter, spring, and the next summer, until the pattern morphs, transitions into a unique pattern again next fall.
2. The weather pattern cycles and repeats over and over again. The first cycle likely begins in October. Once the weather pattern starts repeating, then we can "know" it better and begin making accurate long range predicitons. We have been making these accurate predictions the past two years, some call it coincidence when our forecasts have come through. But, last year we accurately predicted "the storm" to return every 45 days or so. And, we predicted the killing April freeze weeks ahead of time, while other forecasts had predicted winter to be over. Not only did we have the very bad freeze but "the storm" also returned right on schedule with a rare mid April snowstorm
We, at this moment, believe that we are in a 54 day cycle this year. This was found in the first two weeks of December, when we noticed the October storm systems repeating. If you look back in our blog entries from October, we were anticipating those big, wet storm systems to return, but we just weren't sure when. And, now we "know" that they will be coming back and soon. The series of 4 storm systems that happened from December 1st through December 21st will likely return between January 24th and February 15th. We will have our long range forecast, all the way through mid February, at the end of this entry when I get it prepared later today.
The warming trend moving in right now is right on schedule with this repeating pattern. Look below at the weather map on November 10th, 2007 (54 days from January 3rd). This is directly related to what is happening right now....
45 day forecast issued January 2nd:
January 3-15th: There will be two big warming stretches that could put us up into the 60s a couple of days. But, it will be broken up by two storm systems. One of the storms will arrive around January 8th-9th. This one will produce some rain and possibly some snow, but it is a storm that will intensify as it passes us. The second storm will arrive around January 12th -15th. This one could come as a very cold air mass is moving in from Canada.
Arctic air will build in strength across Canada. It will be the coldest air of this entire winter up there with temperatures possibly down to 40 degrees below zero or even lower. A couple of strong Arctic fronts will move through Kansas City and the United States should go into the deep freeze before the end of the month.
January 25th -February 20th:
The series of wet and strong storm systems that affected us in October and again in December will return. I think they will be even stronger this time. And, the Arctic air will be around for each of the storm systems. We will have at least 4, and perhaps as many as 7 storm systems between January 25th and February 20th.
This is how we see the pattern cycling right now. This is a long range projection, based on the LRC. We believe this is around a 54 day cycle. So, this all will repeat again with the stormy and wet part of the pattern returning in the second half of March. Another Arctic air mass is likely then, so watch out for a grand finale to this crazy winter before spring truely shows up. Some parts of our viewing area could easily get close to 50 inches of snow this winter.
You can read more about this on the NBC Action Weather PLUS blog.
Have a Great Night!