My KC Weather Blog

Snowfall Forecast & Global Warming DVD from Answers in Genesis

2011-01-22T09:30:00.004-06:00

EDIT: 11:05pm Here is the latest Snowfall Map click to enlarge:

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I just watched this dvd on Global Warming which was very good!! Check it out Answersingenesis.org Online Store for more info!! Global Warming from Christian Perspective! Thanks for coming, hope to update this soon. Winter Weather Advisory is in effect with 1-5+" possible, hope to have a snowfall forecast made by tonight!!!

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2010-12-23T08:44:00.001-06:00

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2010-11-28T20:35:00.001-06:00

I sell Sky Angel

2009-10-05T16:52:00.000-05:00

A HOT Tuesday!

2009-07-13T23:39:00.002-05:00

Good Late Night/ Tuesday Morning,

Look at the radar pic from around 11:15pm tonight, and you can see T-Storms starting to develop, along and ahead of the Warm Front.

I am thinking now that we will likely see T-Storms in the morning. And then the storms will clear out, and we should be left with a Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny day with Temps around 95-101 degrees. Look at the surface forecast and temp forecast by the GFS, tomorrow at 7pm:

The Warm Front is forecasted to be around downtown. SW & SE of this front, Winds will be from the SE switching to the South with Temperatures 96-101+ degrees. I am going with 99 for KC tomorrow (at KCI)with 100s just SW of K.C. A Cold Front will move through Tuesday Night/Early Wednesday and the Heat will go away along with a little bit of the Humidity. You can watch the latest WeatherCast PLUS HD forecast, just click on the link on the left. The SPC has put us under a SLIGHT Risk for Severe Weather tomorrow as the Warm Front moves through and when the Cold Front moves through Tuesday Night.

Have a Great Night/Tuesday! Thanks for visiting the My KC Weather Blog!

Andrew

Greensburg Radar Pics

2009-06-16T12:30:00.000-05:00

Good Morning wet & Soggy Kansas City!!

We had 2.16" of rain here officially at the KC Weather Station. I hope with summer here that I will have more time to update this!!! I have alot of stuff on my plate right now. Job Hunting is Number 1!!

Take a look at these pics I took from our new Xtreme 3D Stormtrak radar!!

(Click on the Pictures to enlarge them)
Have a Great Day, and I'm gonna try to update things tonight for the first time in 4 months!!!

Andrew

Been a few days

2009-02-04T11:01:00.003-06:00

Good Morning,

I hope to update the blog sometime this afternoon, as I am planning to update the 7 day Forecast, and maybe Weather Cast Plus!! It's Cold out there!! For current temps, just go to Live Storm Tracker Radar. Click on the link on the left in the links section! It should get up into the Mid- 30s as we have a big warm up starting!! And maybe some Spring Thunderstorms??? I'll have that in this afternoon's update!!

Have a Great Day!

Andrew

More evidence that Global Warming is not real

2009-01-29T21:24:00.001-06:00

Good Evening,

This 40 page article was written by John Coleman founder of the weather channel. He currently works as a TV staion in San Diego. I agree 100% with him. I believe GW is a natural cycle and that we are entering a cooler period. For those who believe in GW, PLEASE READ THIS it might just change your mind

http://media.kusi.com/documents/Comments+on+Global+Warming02.pdf

Have a Great Night!

Andrew

Snow & New Features

2009-01-26T11:10:00.003-06:00

Good Morning,

We have snow developing, but the upper level features are very disorganized. Right KC could see 1-3" with 3"+ down south, and in Oklahoma, A Major Ice Storm is setting up. Winter Weather Advisory is South West and East of here. I do expect the KC Metro to be in an WWA sometime this afternoon.

Have you seen our new Features?
- National Radar: http://www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather/nationalradar.htm
- KC Weather Forums: http://www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather/apps/forums/

Have a great day, I'll be trying to update this later today if any changes happen

Andrew

2008-12-17T23:22:00.001-06:00

Update

2008-12-09T15:29:00.002-06:00

Good Afternoon,

IT's Snowing!! Moderate Snow is falling across the metro as little wave is going up I-35. Here is the updated Snowfall Forecast.

I am still thinking around 2-4", Post your Snow totals!!

Andrew

Snow!!

2008-12-09T08:44:00.001-06:00

Good Morning,

We have a interesting set-up today! Cold Air is plunging in, and snow is developing which is heading right towards us. I think KC will see 2-4" of snow today. Check out Live Storm Tracker HD radar for the latest radar!! More updates to come!

Andrew

Quick Post

2008-11-19T23:33:00.001-06:00

Good Evening,

It was nice day today!! I predicted 65 at KCI,and it hit 65 at KCI!! Can I do tomorrow? I'm forecasting a high around 38. I am continuing to research this years LRC. I believe it is around 46 days give or take a few. As soon as I see evidence that it is cycling, I will know for sure.

Have a Great night!
Andrew

Rollercoaster Ride continues!

2008-11-14T23:12:00.003-06:00

Good Evening,

The COLD Blast is here!! And tomorrow you will feel the brunt of winter with NW 15-25mph, Wind Chills between 20-25 degrees, and Highs only around 38. But look at the GFS forecast for Sunday Afternoon:

A Warm Front approaches the area, and with West, down sloping winds we will see a BIG warm up. Highs Sunday could be around 60!! When air comes down the rocky mountains, it compresses and warms up in the plains this is as said above down sloping. Then we go down a hill again for Monday (see 7 Day Forecast) This years weather pattern continues to setup and I believe that it is around a 45 day cycle (give or take a few).

Have a Great Weekend!
Andrew

A Roller Coaster Ride, Are you ready? & 7 day updated

2008-11-12T23:32:00.005-06:00

Good Evening bloggers,

The 7 day forecast is updated! I have been busy tonight getting the forecasts ready plus looking at the weather pattern. I will be doing a Winter Forecast in a few weeks as I study the weather pattern. I think the pattern might be between 45-48 day cycle, but I'm researching it still. Look at the graphic describing Friday's cold front:

As you can see we are expecting some rain. right now it appears totals will be around .25" to .50" locally there could be pockets of 1" as of looking at the models right now. Things will/are changing.

Then the chance of flurries appears very slim right now for Friday night into Saturday. It will be cold Saturday with Highs only in the upper 30s, and winds will be howling from the NW at around 15-25mph. Wind Chills could be anywhere around 10 degrees to 24 degrees. On Sunday we could get up to almost 60 degrees, before another cold front comes through.

So get ready for a Roller Coaster ride!
I expect lows to be around 35 degrees with St. Joseph maybe getting around 30 degrees.
Have a great Night for those of you who are still up,

Andrew

Winter Forecast?

2008-11-12T13:07:00.003-06:00

Good Afternoon,

I'll be slowly updating the website, and this blog thru the next few weeks. I'll will also be getting the Weather Cast Plus Winter Forecast 2009 done. I am studying the weather pattern, and will have it the forecast very soon.

Friday we could see some flurries or snow showers as a strong cold front comes thru, and little disturbance heads our way. As of now no Accumulation is expected.

Have a Great Day,

Andrew

Severe Weather

2008-11-05T17:44:00.003-06:00

Good Evening,

Been awhile. Here's a look at the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that the SPC has issued until Midnight (12am).

The KC Metro is not included yet, but a line of T-storms is developing along the cold front, and we do have Slight Risk for Severe Weather. For LIVE Storm Tracker radar HD go to http://liveradar.zxq.net/ . I will be trying to update as much as possible tonight. And talk about are 1st chance of Snow showing up.

Andrew

Weather Cast PLUS Video Updated!

2008-09-26T22:44:00.001-05:00

Good Evening,

The Weather Cast PLUS video is now updated! This weekend will be nice with Highs between 80 & 85 degrees. For the race at the Kansas Speedway on Sunday the forecast looks to be Mostly Sunny with the track being dry, not humid or hot. Just right! and High around 84 degrees. I hope to update the blog tomorrow!

Have a great weekend,
Andrew

Severe T-Storm Watch

2008-08-28T15:34:00.001-05:00

Good Evening,

A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect until 11pm tonight! Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and Heavy Rain (Flash Flooding) are the main threats. NEW to this blog is the Severe Weather Alerts and live radar! Just scroll down all the way down to the bottom if this page. We continue to update stuff before updating the website!

Be Safe!
Andrew

Long Time since last updated

2008-08-14T22:08:00.001-05:00

Good Evening,

It has been Long time since the website,and blog has been updated! I hope to start updating it again sometime NEXT WEEK!!! Weather Wise, Rain chances are not looking good,and we are actually having a dry August instead of talking about the possibility of Flash Flooding,and Flooding. We are still ahead for the year, precipitation wise,but the lawns do need to have a drink.

Have a GREAT Night! Go USA at Beijing!

Andrew

More Rain. and Dangerous Flash Flooding

2008-07-02T21:44:00.002-05:00

Good Evening,

Check out the radar form around 9:45pm,and the Radar Estimates from around 9:45pm

Water Rescues have been going on all night. The last line that is developing along the Cold Front will move through the entire metro by Midnight. A Quarter of an inch to a Half an inch plus could fall with this last line. Remember: Turn Around;Don't Drown!

Andrew

Severe Thunderstorms

2008-07-02T19:39:00.001-05:00

**Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 12am!**

Thunderstorms are developing and heading towards KC, the moisture is pooling around the KC Metro, Large Hail, and Damaging Winds are possible with these thunderstorms. The main threat is Large Hail. There have been reports of Walnut size to Tennis size hail. For the latest radar, go to http://liveradar.zxq.net/ . We'll keep track of these possible Damaging Storms!

Andrew

Tonight Forecast

2008-06-28T21:43:00.000-05:00

More T-Storms

2008-06-27T23:00:00.000-05:00

Severe T-Storms

2008-06-02T10:13:00.001-05:00

Good Morning,

A Severe T-Storm is in effect until 2pm. Severe ThunderStorms with Golfball to Softball size hail has been reported in Mahatten,KS. For the latest radar image go to http://liveradar.zxq.net/ These T-Storms should be in KC between 11:30 and 1pm. Get ready to take shelter, just in case these storms continue to drop softball sixe hail!!

Andrew

Help! Storm CHasing Equipment

2008-05-17T11:03:00.000-05:00

Storm Chasing Tomorrow

2008-05-12T19:38:00.001-05:00

Tomorrow (Tuesday), My dad,and I will be going Storm Chasing with Sean Wilson of Blown Away Tours!! www.blownawaytours.com KC has a Slight Risk for Severe Weather, we are planning to go to Joplin,Mo. We are hoping we will see our 1st Tornado ever!! I'll have more Wednesday!

Andrew

More T-Storm Warnings

2008-05-02T01:45:00.000-05:00

WUUS53 KEAX 020644
SVREAX
MOC037-047-095-165-020715-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0071.080502T0641Z-080502T0715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
141 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 215 AM CDT

* AT 136 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE
SQUALL WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WINDS UP TO 75 MPH FROM TONGANOXIE
TO OLATHE. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS UP TO 75 MPH STILL LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LINE
HEADS TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. AT 135 AM...THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BASEHOR TO
BONNER SPRINGS TO LENEXA TO FONTANA...AND RACING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PERSONS TRAVELING
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 IN AND WEST OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA SHOULD
SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
KANSAS CITY...PARKVILLE...AND GRANDVIEW BY 150 AM CDT.
RIVERSIDE...RAYTOWN...RAYMORE AND PLATTE WOODS BY 155 AM CDT.
SUGAR CREEK...COURTNEY...PLEASANT VALLEY AND LEE'S SUMMIT BY 200 AM
CDT.
SMITHVILLE AND LIBERTY BY 205 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF STILLINGS...FARLEY...EAST LEAVENWORTH...WEST LINE...
MAYWOOD...OAKS...KANSAS CITY INTL AIRPORT...OAKWOOD PARK...OAKWOOD
AND UNITY VILLAGE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. MOVE
IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3934 9424 3931 9422 3921 9422 3922 9419
      3919 9419 3915 9411 3859 9415 3847 9462
      3902 9462 3914 9459 3922 9478 3935 9492
      3946 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 242DEG 50KT 3921 9494 3911 9482
          3895 9465 3850 9473

BOOKBINDER

Powerful Winds

2008-05-02T01:22:00.000-05:00

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
LEAVENWORTH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 109 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS UP TO 80 MPH. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SITUATION...WITH WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES
WEST OF TONGANOXIE TO 10 MILES WEST OF EDGERTON TO 10 MILES WEST
OF PARKER...AND RACING EAST AT 60 MPH.

Damage

2008-05-02T01:10:00.001-05:00

Several Tornado Warnings have been issued, and there have been reports of 60+mph Damaging Winds with Power poles knocked down, power outages just west of here,

Andrew

Update: 1am

2008-05-02T01:01:00.001-05:00

The NWS has extended the Tornado Watch until 8am. The final roudn is coming through, and the Tornado Threat is still minimal.

More updates,

Andrew

Update: 9:48pm

2008-05-01T21:54:00.000-05:00

The latest above, storms will continue through the night, the tornado threat is there, but has dimished a bit.

Updates to Come, Remember for Live Storm Tracker Radar go to http://liveradar.zxq.net/

Andrew

Update: 8:30pm

2008-05-01T20:29:00.001-05:00

What a Crazy Night! Tornado Warning in Olathe, which have been allowed to expire. Tornado Threat is still there, but no more warnings so far. More T-Storms are developing west of Topeka, that will be the main Even for later tonight.

More updates to come!

Andrew

T-Storms Developing

2008-05-01T17:47:00.001-05:00

Severe T-Storms are now developing. Large Hail, Damaging Winds is the main Threat. A Tornado Watch has just been issued as I write this until 1am. More updates coming! In the links section to the Left click on LIVE Storm Tracker Radar for the latest radar image.

Andrew

Moderate RISK for Severe Weather

2008-05-01T14:02:00.006-05:00

Good Afternoon,

Look below at the Surface Map from 12:43pm:

A Cold Front, Dry line, and the High dew points, and Temperatures in the 80s are all coming together for a possible Severe Weather Outbreak. Here is the Visible sat. Pic:

We have to watch the area of clearing, the cap is slowly eroding,and as soon it has eroded enough; Strong to Severe T-Storms will develop. Right now the main threats are Large Hail, and Damaging Winds. But, Tornadoes are also an Isolated threat,the 1st T-Storms to develop will have the potential for tornadoes before forming into a Squall Line. Here is the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook:

We will be watching this, and you can too! With LIVE Storm Tracker Doppler, just click the link to the right. I'll have an update around 4pm or so!
Andrew

Cold Front moving through

2008-04-25T09:34:00.000-05:00

As you can see the cold front is moving through, as of now there are a few T-Storms popping up. I think we might have a little shower or T-Storm, then temps start falling through out the afternoon.

Andrew

Live Radar

2008-04-22T08:42:00.001-05:00

Thanks to David for this! click to enlarge

Last Update

2008-04-22T03:12:00.000-05:00

One last update, as you can see the rain has shifted to the east, but alot Lightning still remains. So, be careful.click to enlarge

Look at the surface map from 3:07am, the cold front is moving through, so this is the last round of T-Storms.

Good Night, more on this, and our next chance of Rain later this afternoon.

Andrew

Radar Update 2:20am

2008-04-22T02:24:00.000-05:00

Radar Update: 2:10am

2008-04-22T02:12:00.000-05:00

The Big T-Storm complex in Douglas, KS is making its way towards Olathe,KS. Should be in Olathe around 2:30am. No Severe Weather Warnings as of 2:11am

Radar Update 1:52am

2008-04-22T01:56:00.000-05:00

Radar update 1:38am

2008-04-22T01:42:00.000-05:00

Latest Track

2008-04-22T01:27:00.000-05:00

Radar Update

2008-04-22T01:07:00.000-05:00

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

Here is the radar from around 1am. Look at the Hail Core!! Large Hail, and Damaging Winds are possible with this storm.

RAIN

2008-04-22T00:37:00.000-05:00

Heavy T-Storms are moving across the region right now.

Slow Moving front, and any T-storms?

2008-04-21T21:13:00.003-05:00

Good Evening,

Look at the surface map and you can the cold front slowly moving our way:

This is not much of a cold front, as it will not drop our temperatures significantly.

Here is a look at Storm Tracker at around 9:30pm:

The only cell is a big one entering into Kansas, with Quarter size hail,and 60mph winds. I'll be tracking this, and watching the radar for any more development.

Updates will be as/if necessary.
Andrew

T-Storm Watch

2008-04-21T19:10:00.000-05:00

A Severe T-Storm Watch for just west, and north of KC has been issued. So far nothing has developed, I keep an eye on it.!

Andrew

Showers on a Friday Night

2008-04-18T22:16:00.000-05:00

Good Evening,

Take a look at the radar from 10:09pm, Light to just a little bit on the Moderate side rain showers are moving through.

This will continue through the night for a few hours, then the question is will the sun come out tomorrow. More after the New Data comes out.

Andrew

Showers and T-Storms Continue

2008-04-17T18:35:00.001-05:00

Good Afternoon,

Take a look at Storm Tracker Doppler, and you see we moderate to heavy T-Showers around KC right now, we also have new development, which is heading our way. I'll have more later. This rain is expected to continue through the overnight hours. There's a Slight chance that one or two of the T-Storms could become Severe because of 1" Hail.

More later!

Andrew

2 Day's in a Row! How much rain?

2008-04-16T21:53:00.004-05:00

Update: 11:30pm

The new GFS has came out, and it says 1.00"-1.25" of Rain Thursday through Friday. I'm going with 1.25" of Rain. Below is a radar image from our new Storm Tracker Doppler Radar at 11:30pm. Rain is already developing in Central Kansas. With Storm Tracker, and First Alert Doppler, we will be able to give you the latest Severe Weather info!! Speaking of Severe Weather, there is only a slight chance tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center hasn't even put us under a Slight Risk for right now. click to enlarge
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We did it again! It hit our forecasted high of 75F degrees today!! Now the question is how much rain do we get Thursday and part of Friday? Below is the latest NAM data,it shows between .50"-1". I'll have my forecast after the GFS comes out.

We also have a stalled front, as you can see below. This front will play a role in determining how much rain we will get, and how warm we will get. Will it be in the 50s, or get into the low to mid 60s? I'm updating the 5 day right now and will have on the web soon!

click to enlarge
Update later, after the 00z GFS comes out!

Andrew

Another Stormy Thursday...

2008-04-15T21:59:00.004-05:00

Update: 11:55pm:

The new GFS has around 1" to 1.75". Right now I will wait until tomorrow before forecasting rainfall amounts.

Good Evening bloggers,

Take a look at the Almanac for today:

As you can see, we got it right on the nose!! Can we do it again tomorrow? Tomorrow could be anywhere between 70-80 degrees! The 80 degrees depends on when the clouds move in. Right now it appears the clouds will come in around 3pm. Then our attention turns to the storm on Thursday. A Cold front will be coming through, and behind this front, we will see some Thunder Storms. How much rain will fall? Some of the computer models say around 0.10 -.19". I update the rest of this after the 00z GFS comes out.

Andrew

Freezing Tonight!

2008-04-13T20:11:00.003-05:00

Good Sunday Evening bloggers,

We are setting up for a Moderate Freeze tonight with temps around 25F. Here is some plant care info from www.hamonslandscaping.com:

"Landscapes in Kansas City will soon be hitting the deep freeze. Well, maybe not the deep freeze. However even with temperatures reaching down into upper 20�s � it is important to have all the information necessary.

First of all this is not at all like the freeze of 2007 � although the dates are not that different. The difference lies in the weather of March. In 2007, Kansas City�s weather was unseasonably warm. Plants were a good 3 - 4 weeks ahead of normal development. Last year I already had Iris blooms poking up in my yard. This year, I barely have leaves coming through last falls leaves. Freezing temperatures this weekend will only be a slight problem for landscapers and homeowners in Kansas City.

Different plants will need different amounts of care this weekend.

Perennials

Most perennials will be fine as long as the temperature stays above 20 degrees. However, if you are the type of person who like to err on the side of caution then covering the plants with a bed sheet. If you use plastic then you must make sure to support the plastic off the leaves or blooms and leaves will still be damaged.

Trees

There is no practical way to protect a tree from the effects of the freezing air. All those pretty magnolias that bloomed this week will be turned to mush if the temperature gets below freezing. However, no permanent damage will be done. This is a common problem with most magnolia trees in our area. Sweetbay Magnolias are on tree that rarely has problems because of it late blooming.

Shrubs

If you have any shrubs that are blooming or who have tender new growth then they should be covered with a sheet to protect the new tender foliage. If you do nothing then you will likely see some dieback of the new foliage - but no lasting damage. If you have shrubs that almost ready to bloom, you may lose this year�s blooms if they are not protected.

Vegetables

If you got an early start on some of your vegetable you will need to protect them unless they are spinach or lettuce. Construct a sturdy frame over the rows and then lay a sheet over each row. Secure the sheet to the ground to prevent wind from moving or disturbing the sheet.

With a little extra care you will can make sure that this upcoming freeze will not delay the beauty of the your landscape."

More Tomorrow,

Andrew

Last Line

2008-04-10T20:56:00.000-05:00

Good Evening,

Wow! What a day, the last line of Severe T-Storms is moving through with Hail, and Damaging Winds the main threats. We will quiet down and we could have a few snowflakes on Friday,and/or Saturday. Then a Nice Warm up is in store for Next week as we could be in the 80s! I'll have more tomorrow.

Andrew

Update: 2:45pm T-Storm Watch

2008-04-10T14:51:00.001-05:00

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 191

Effective Until: 9:00 PM CDT

Iowa Counties Included Are:
Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Cass, Clarke, Dallas, Davis, Decatur
Fremont, Guthrie, Harrison, Jasper, Lucas, Madison, Mahaska, Marion
Mills, Monroe, Montgomery, Page, Polk, Pottawattamie, Poweshiek, Ringgold
Shelby, Taylor, Union, Wapello, Warren, Wayne

Kansas Counties Included Are:
Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Cherokee, Coffey, Crawford, Doniphan
Douglas, Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami
Nemaha, Osage, Shawnee, Wyandotte

Missouri Counties Included Are:
Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Barton, Bates, Benton, Buchanan, Caldwell, Camden
Carroll, Cass, Cedar, Chariton, Clay, Clinton, Cooper, Dade, Dallas
Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Greene, Grundy, Harrison, Henry, Hickory, Holt
Howard, Jackson, Jasper, Johnson, Laclede, Lafayette, Lawrence, Linn
Livingston, Macon, Mercer, Miller, Morgan, Nodaway, Pettis, Platte, Polk
Pulaski, Putnam, Randolph, Ray, St. Clair, Saline, Schuyler, Sullivan
Texas, Vernon, Webster, Worth, Wright

Nebraska Counties Included Are:
Cass, Douglas, Johnson, Nemaha, Otoe, Pawnee, Richardson, Sarpy, Washington

PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

More updates to come!

Andrew

Update: 2:45pm T-Storm Watch

2008-04-10T14:49:00.001-05:00

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 191

Effective Until: 9:00 PM CDT

Nebraska Counties Included Are:
Cass, Douglas, Johnson, Nemaha, Otoe, Pawnee, Richardson, Sarpy, Washington

More updates to come!

Andrew

Thursday 11:37am Update

2008-04-10T11:30:00.003-05:00

Good Afternoon,

Look at the latest Surface, and Visible Satellite Picture:

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

A powerful storm system is developing, right now we have only a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. I still think we could get up to 70 degrees as the Sun is trying to come out. In fact as I write this the sun is peeking in, and out here in Olathe. we could see re-development as we go into the afternoon. Large Hail will be the biggest threat;if any T-Storms develop. The Warm Front is almost here, as you can see on the maps above. I'll have more updates to come!

Andrew

Chance of Rain

2008-03-26T08:48:00.001-05:00

Good Morning,

A warm front is South of us this morning,causing a few showers and T-Showers to form. As we go throughout the day we will see a 30% chance for more rain. I will be updating the 5 Day Today, and try to get to Weather Cast PLUS. Faith Morgan Stafford is my new baby sister, who right now, I;m trying to cheer up.

Have a Great Day!

Andrew

Severe Weather Awareness Week

2008-03-10T14:13:00.000-05:00

Hey everybody,

Havn't had time to blog or update the Weather Cast PLUS forecasts since the new baby came!!

This week is Severe Weather Awareness Week. Here is some more info on how to keep you family safe during Severe Weather Season! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=severewx-awareness

Have a Great Day!

Andrew

2008-03-02T22:25:00.001-06:00

Grading Time, and Tornado Photos

2008-02-06T21:52:00.001-06:00

Wow! It did it again, the heaviest snow was North, and Northwest of KC. Here at the Weather Center we got 2.3". Send in your Snow Totals, and I will put them on here. Now time to grade, how do you think I did, scroll to the last blog post to see the Snowfall Forecast from 11:15pm. I rate myself a C-. For tornado photos go to http://wreg.com/Global/Link.asp?L=296076 . Send in your Weather Photos to: Stafandt@earthlink.net .

There is a chance of Light snow tomorrow, new data is coming. More around 10:30pm.

Andrew

Updated: 11:15pm

2008-02-05T23:13:00.000-06:00

Good Late Evening,
Below is the latest snowfall Forecast, things have shifted again!! The 6"-12"+ appears to be likely up north now. The KC Metro will about 2"-6" with more north and west of KC. If there is any Thunder-Snow then that will increase the amounts in isolated areas.
click to enlarge

Also, here is the Central Plains Loop (click to enlarge, then loop), can you find the Upper Level Low? The Snow is developing across Kansas with the heaviest,again,being north and west of KC. The Severe T-Storms which have cause major devastation in Arkansas, Tennessee continue to move east along the Cold Front. I'll try to get pictures tomorrow from those areas. Speaking of Pictures, send in your snow photos to: stafandt@earthlink.net.

More updates will come if needed,
Andrew

Snow Fall Forecast

2008-02-05T13:13:00.000-06:00

Good Afternoon,

Here is the latest snowfall forecast below, I do think that 3-6" will fall in the Metro. 6-10"+ are possible up by St. Joseph!
click to enlarge

The latest warnings,and advisories:

I-70 and North have a Winter Storm Warnings, I-70 and South have a Winter Weather Advisory. I do think however, that that Johnson County,KS,and Jackson County,Mo and few other counties along I-70 will be included in the Winter Storm Warning later today. We have a little break for now, then around 3-4pm, Freezing Rain,Sleet,and Snow will develop, and by around 7-8pm we should all have snow in the area, except for places down South like Harrisonville,Mo which might not see the changeover until around Midnight or so. The SPC has also issued the 1st High Risk of Severe Weather of the season for parts of Arkansas,Missourri,and Tennessee. So this storm system is very strong.

Stay Tuned for more updates!
Andrew

Snow Storm Watch

2008-02-04T21:42:00.000-06:00

Good evening,

Here's the latest Winter Storm Watches/Advisories:

click to enlarge

As you can see, we have a Winter Storm Watch, and there is just southeast of KC;a Severe Thunder Storm Watch!! New data is coming out, right now it appears it will start out as Freezing Drizzle, then changeover to all snow by 7pm Tuesday. Snow Totals appear for now to be around 2"-5" in the Kansas City Metro Area. St. Joseph and areas up north could get 6"-12" of snow.

As soon as the newest GFS comes out, I will try update this blog with a Snowfall Forecast.

Andrew

Updated: Snowfall Forecast

2008-01-31T12:31:00.000-06:00

Good Afternoon,

The sun has been out in a few places. Here is the latest snowfall forecast, I'm expecting 1" or less. The storm system has dived to far south for us to get a good snowfall. We are under a Snow Advisory, but right now,I almost think it will be canceled. We are watching the radar with some Light to Moderate snow moving in from the South West, but 1" or less is all we'll get with this.
click to enlarge

I might update the blog on this winter storm one more time.

Andrew

Weather from a Biblical Perspective

2008-01-31T10:27:00.001-06:00

Good Late Morning KC Weather Bloggers,

I would like to talk about how I think there is a Biblical Perspective on Weather.

About a year ago, I read a great book called "Weather and the Bible" by Donald B. Deyoung. It's a 100 Questions and Answers book. The 1st question was "Should a Christian become a Meteorologist?"

One thing that I would do, that most Meteorologists don't do is give the Glory to God. After all He deserves the praise, and worship. He is the one who controls the weather, and the universe. He makes it possible for us to make great discoveries in Weather.
God highly recommends the study of nature, and His creation:

" The heavens declare the glory of God; the skies proclaim the works of His hands." Ps. 19:1

" Go to the ant, you sluggard; consider its way and be wise." Prov. 6:6

We need a new generation to rise up, and give the glory, and honor where it belongs.
I believe the Bible is the true history book. I believe God created the universe in 6 days. (Genesis 1)
God has done supernatural events in Weather; such as:

The Genesis Flood (when the whole world was covered by Water)
Fire from heaven upon Sodom and Gomorrah
In the New Testament, Jesus calmed a storm; showing that He indeed controls the weather.

From the book: "The creationist viewpoint see humanity as the culmination of the creation week. Planet earth was made for enjoyment and well-being. The water cycle and the cool breezes were planned for our benefit. The trees were made for our visual enjoyment, as well as for food. (Gen. 2:9)."
Jesus speaks to the Pharisees and Sadducees about Weather proverbs.

� 1The Pharisees and Sadducees came to Jesus and tested him by asking him to show them a sign from heaven. 2He replied "When evening comes, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red,' 3and in the morning, 'Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.' You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times." Matt. 16:1-3

Future Weather events are in the Bible:

100lb Hailstones will fall from the sky all over the earth during the 7 yr Tribulation. (Rev. 16:21)
Fire will come down from heaven. (Rev. 13:13)
The Winds will stop. (Rev. 7:1)
There are a lot more future events predicted in the Bible just read Revelation.

One of my favorite Bible passages which does not only describes God�s glory, but also talks a lot about weather. I call it the "Weather Passage".

" 1 The LORD reigns, let the earth be glad; let the distant shores rejoice. 2 Clouds and thick darkness surround him; righteousness and justice are the foundation of his throne. 3 Fire goes before him and consumes his foes on every side. 4 His lightning lights up the world; the earth sees and trembles. 5 The mountains melt like wax before the LORD, before the Lord of all the earth. 6 The heavens proclaim his righteousness, and all the peoples see his glory.� Psalm 97: 1-6

Well, that's pretty much a summary of weather in a Biblical perspective. I'll update the blog around 11:30am or Noon with the latest snowfall forecast.

Have a Great Day!

Andrew

Snowfall Forecast#1

2008-01-30T23:05:00.000-06:00

Good Evening,

Below is the snowfall forecast for Thursday, the 00z data is not looking good. This storm looks to be going to far south for KC to get much snow. 1-4" is looking less, and less likely. In fact, a Dusting to 1" is looking much better than 3"+. We'll see what happens with overnight data. I'll either update my snowfall forecast tomorrow or leave it. Depending on radar trends in the morning,where the storm system is located,etc. The snow will start somewhere around 6-11am in the morning. Probably around 9-10am.
click to enlarge

Have a Great Night,

Andrew

More Evidence that Global Warming is not real!

2008-01-29T23:31:00.001-06:00

Good Evening,

Here is the link to the story:

http://redicecreations.com/article.php?id=2659

Here at the Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center: 1.5' of Snow fell

1/2"to 1.5" of Snow fell today. I'll have more on our next chance of snow tomorrow.

Andrew

Almanac & Warmer Weather

2008-01-25T23:03:00.000-06:00

Good Late Friday Evening,

Weather Cast PLUS Video, and the 5 Day Forecast is updated. For tonight we will drop to around 25F, and tomorrow we will jump up to around 41F. This is the start of the 3 day Warm up;before another Arctic Cold Front comes through.

Here's Today's Almanac; I missed by 1 degree today for the High, and 9 Degrees for the LOW. Not bad, considering I'm still learning weather.
click to enlarge

Have a Great Weekend,
Andrew

Almanac for Today and SNOW

2008-01-24T21:40:00.000-06:00

**UPDATE: Here's a snowfall Forecast Map:

*************************
Good Evening,

Here's the Almanac for today:
click to enlarge

KCI is at 8F right now, I think we will make down to to around 0F or -1F. Then tomorrow a small,weak,fast-moving system will come by; there's a 100% chance for snow, and because the ground is so Cold, we could see a dusting to possibly 1"-2". I am updating the 5 Day Forecast right now, so it should be online around 10:30pm. Have you seen our new POLL to the left? Which weather extreme would you choose? 0 degrees? or 100 degrees? Cast you Vote!!

Andrew

Another Arctic Blast

2008-01-22T20:17:00.001-06:00

Good Evening,

Not much time, so I'll make this quick. Our last Arctic Cold Front will come through tomorrow and it will turn cold again. Flurries can't be ruled out, but no accumulation is expected. Then we have a Warm up, but for how long?. There are signs that in about a week, Arctic Air will be building in Western Canada,and Eastern Alaska which will slowy make it's way down in the next 2-3 weeks. Also, Weather Cast PLUS video is updated!! Click on the link to the left.

Andrew

Arctic Air here it comes!

2008-01-18T10:54:00.000-06:00

Good Friday morning Bloggers,

It's Friday! The Arctic Front is moving towards us. take a look at the Surface map from around 10:30am. click to enlarge.

Here is the radar from that time, as you can see light to moderate snow showers have developed. I expect only 1/2" or less of accumulation. (click to enlarge)

I'll have more later,

Andrew

Arctic Air for Friday,and Snow totals

2008-01-17T21:10:00.000-06:00

click to enlarge
Good Evening, Here are some Snowfall totals from today:

Gallatin, MO: 6.0"
St. Joseph, MO: 3.5-5.0"
Kearney, MO: 4.5"
Plattsburg, MO: 4.2"
Mound City, MO: 4.0"
Platte City, MO: 3.5-4.25"
Maryville, MO: 4.0"
Smithville, MO: 4.0"
Trenton, MO: 3.9"
Overland Park, KS: 2.5-3.5"
W. Shawnee, KS: 3.5"
Lenexa, KS: 3-4"
KCK: 3.25"
Bonner Springs, KS: 3.5"
Lawrence, KS: 2.5-3.7"
Berryton, KS: 3.5"
I-35 & N. Brighton Rd: 2.9"
N.Oak & Barry Rd, MO: 2.5"
Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center: 2.5"
Grandview, MO: 2.0"
Lee's Summit, MO: 1.75"
Blue Springs, MO: 1.75"
Belton, MO: 1.0-2.0"
Pleasant Hill, MO: 1.0"
Grain Valley, MO: 1.0"
Gunn City, MO: 0.75-1.0"
10 mi. N. of Warrensburg, MO: 0.25"
Sedalia, MO: Light Dusting

We will go down to around 3 degrees tonight!! KCI is already at 7F, here at the weather center it's 16F. Tomorrow a Arctic Cold Front comes through,and our temps will drop like a bomb. We will also have a few snow showers around, and could see another dusting of snow. We could also see very dangerous Wind Chill values that would below zero. I will have the 5 Day Forecast updated around 10:45pm or so.

Stay Warm!
Andrew

Update:10:30pm

2008-01-16T21:13:00.000-06:00

Here is the updated Snowfall Forecast, and the 5 Day has been updated:
click to enlarge
------------------------------------------------
9:30pm update: Good Evening,

Click the above image to see the radar loop from around 8:30pm to 8:45pm.
You can see that we'll in a little break from the snow for now, but Heavy Snow out in west central Kansas is heading our way. No changes have been made to the Snowfall forecast for now ( Scroll down to the 7pm update for the latest snowfall forecast). The new GFS is just starting to come out, and I will have another update with the latest Futurecast 3D, and more info on the Arctic Cold front that will be coming through on Friday.

Have a Great Night, and Send in you Snow totals, please.

Andrew

Update: 7pm

2008-01-16T19:09:00.001-06:00

Good Evening,

It is now snowing in most places except those southeast of the metro. The Snow/Rain Line is slowly moving to east, everybody will see snow tonight. The Snow Fall Forecast has not changed, so for the latest snowfall forecast just go down to the 2:15pm update. I'll try to update again around 9:30pm with the latest Futurecast 3D, and Snowfall Forecast. We might even talk about Friday as we have a true Arctic Cold Front coming down. We could see some 5 below zero lows early next week. More on that at 9:30pm. PLEASE SEND IN YOUR SNOW TOTALS AND/OR REPORTS, you can either comment or send me a email at stafandt@earthlink.net .

Andrew

Update: 2:15pm

2008-01-16T14:03:00.000-06:00

Good Afternoon,

It is still raining,but the rain/snow line is almost here!! Take a look at Futurecast 3D (click to enlarge,and animate) Between Now and 3 or 4pm it will be rain, but KCI is already seeing a mix. North of the metro it's changing over. South of the metro the changeover will occur around 3 or 4pm.

Below is the latest Snowfall Forecast (click to enlarge), not much has changed as you can see.

Here's the radar image from around 2:10pm, I drew in the Freezing Line
(snow/rain line). Click to enlarge.

More updates to come, if you start seeing snow, Report it!!

Andrew

Snowfall Forecast

2008-01-15T23:08:00.000-06:00

Good Evening,
Here's is the Snowfall Forecast:
click to enlarge
And here is a look at the latest Snow Advisory:
click to enlarge
It will be a battle against the Cold Air, and the Warm Air. It appears that it will be rain first for Kansas City, with some Snowflakes mixed in. North and North West of the Metro it appears they will see all snow again which means that they will get most of the snow. Around 7pm or 8pm Wednesday Night is when it will start changing over to snow. If this changeover occurs earlier than expected we could see more snow, if it occurs late than expected we will see less snow.

I'll have an update in the Morning,
Andrew

Snow is in the Forecast

2008-01-15T13:42:00.000-06:00

Good Afternoon,

Look at the GFS (12Z) QPF or Rainfall Forecast:

As you can see it shows .25-.50" of Liquid falls, this storm system for Wednesday will be a little rain, but this will really be 1-4"+ of Snow possible. As soon as the new 18z data comes out, I will make a Snowfall Forecast, it appears right now; that the heaviest snow will fall northwest of Kansas City. Areas like Saint Joseph, Topeka,Marysville,etc could see 3-4"+ of Snow easily. Kansas City Appears will see 1-2"+. Below is Futurecast 3D, click to enlarge and watch the animation.

I'll have more later this Afternoon/Early Evening.

Andrew

Arctic Air Watch, and Sunday's Records.

2008-01-13T14:58:00.001-06:00

Good Afternoon,

Sunday's Record's

High 68F (1996)
Low -14F (1916)

Wow! Hard to believe it was 68 degrees back in 1996;But could you imagine a Low of 14 Below Zero!! That's Frigid!! And the Frigid air looks to be coming this way for the end of the Work week. Look below at the surface temperature map Valid Wednesday Night.
Click to enlarge
Wow! All the way up in Northern Canada temps 35 Below Zero!! Now the Arctic Cold Front will be on our doorstep Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning. The Arctic Air will be modified a bit with lows in the low Twenties and Highs in the low Thirties. I made a graphic (below) that shows what will happen Thursday as the Cold Air comes in. The Low will really be in Northern Canada by Hudson Bay, The High will be in northern Alberta;but I put on the map below just to show what happens.

click to enlarge

Have a Great Day! '
Andrew

More Items in KC Weather Store

2008-01-10T20:05:00.001-06:00

You asked for it, and you got it!! Kansas City Weather Store nows has more items that you can buy!! So click on the link to the left, and start shopping at the Kansas City Weather Store!!

Andrew

It's Snowing.... Aloft!

2008-01-10T09:05:00.000-06:00

Good Morning,

Take a look at the latest radar image (click to enlarge):

You can the precip is coming to a end from West to east. We are getting drysloted at the ULL and Surface low move right over us. This will cause the winds to come from the North and the temperatures will start to come down, I do expect another band of precip to develop later this afternoon, if temperatures are cold enough, we could see some Snowflakes. As of 9:15am the Snowfall forecast from last night has not changed. Please Send in your Rain totals!

Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center Conditions 9:17am:

Temperature: 39.2 F
Humidity : 85%
Dewpoint : 35F
Winds : 5mph SSE
Rain Total : 0.34"

Another update around Noon!
Andrew

Snowfall Forecast... or to warm for snow?

2008-01-09T22:45:00.000-06:00

Good Evening,

The 5 day forecast is updated, so click on the link to the left. Now onto the forecast, tomorrow is hard to forecast. Will the Temperatures stay above freezing most of the day? I think they will, as they could get up close to 40 degrees. Then there could be a little bit of snow. Here's the Snow fall Forecast:

click to enlarge

The Light Dusting is still out on the Limb,and might be still little too far south, the best chance for 1"+ will be up by St. Joesph and points north. Here's a table of If the temperature is at that degrees what precipitation would fall:

36F+: Rain
35F : Rain/Snow (Mostly Rain)
34F : Snow/Rain (Mostly Snow)
33F or Below: Snow

I'll have an update tomorrow morning.

Andrew

5 day updated!

2008-01-08T22:52:00.001-06:00

Good Evening,

The NEW and Improved 5 Day Forecast has been updated!! To see it just click on the link to the left that say Weather Cast 5 Day!! Chance of rain and Snow Thursday!! More on this tomorrow!!

Have a Great Night,

Andrew

Radar Loop and Update: 2pm

2008-01-08T13:41:00.000-06:00

Good afternoon,
A mix of Rain, and Snow is moves into the area. This appears to be a mostly rain event, but if temperatures can just drop a couple degrees to around 33-34 degrees, we could see some nice snow. It able to snow all way up through the atmosphere, except at the surface. If this occurs a very,very light dusting is all that could be expected. Ground Temperatures are still warm. Send in your Rain Totals from this morning, and any snow you saw. So far here at the Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center .30" of rain as fallen.
Update 2pm: Right now in Olathe, it's now Snowing!!

Andrew

1st Tornado Outbreak of the season

2008-01-07T21:03:00.000-06:00

Good Evening,

Above is the radar image from 9:14pm Tonight, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect south of the KC Metro area until 5am tonight. There has been a Tornado Outbreak in Springfield,Mo tonight. Reports are coming in of Roofs damaged, trees,power lines,and telephone pools down. This is Amazing to see a tornado outbreak in January, but it is not uncommon. We will see some Rain tomorrow, but it will be a Cold Rain, we could see some Snow,Sleet mixed in with the rain. The High today was 66 degrees here at the Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center!! A Cold Front has came through which is cooling us down. Right now the temperature is at 50 degrees. Have a great night! I will try to get the NEW and Improved 5 Day Forecast updated!!! Send in your Rain Totals.
Andrew

NEW!! KC Weather Store

2008-01-05T22:49:00.001-06:00

That's right!! We have a new Kansas City Weather Store!!

http://www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather/kansascitystore.htm

Everything from Weather Stations to outfits for outdoors!!

Check it out!!

Enjoy!

Andrew

Warming Trend... but for how long?...

2008-01-03T21:35:00.001-06:00

Good Thursday Evening,

We are in a warming trend through Sunday! We could see 60 degrees on Sunday!! The SPC has issued a Severe Weather RISK for just south of us, for next Sunday, and Monday. WOW!! But we have not seen the worst of winter yet.

This is from Gary Lezak's Blog about the LRC:

THE LRC.......What is it?

For those of you new to NBC Action News and our weather blog, the LRC will be new to you. It is a theory, and I believe a major discovery in meteorology, that I have come up with in the past 20 years. It was named by you, the bloggers! LRC stands for Lezak's Recurring Cycle. There are two main parts to my theory:

1. "Long term" longwave troughs and ridges become established between October 1st and November 10th. These longwaves will help define the storm tracks for, not just the winter, but from October through winter, spring, and the next summer, until the pattern morphs, transitions into a unique pattern again next fall.

2. The weather pattern cycles and repeats over and over again. The first cycle likely begins in October. Once the weather pattern starts repeating, then we can "know" it better and begin making accurate long range predicitons. We have been making these accurate predictions the past two years, some call it coincidence when our forecasts have come through. But, last year we accurately predicted "the storm" to return every 45 days or so. And, we predicted the killing April freeze weeks ahead of time, while other forecasts had predicted winter to be over. Not only did we have the very bad freeze but "the storm" also returned right on schedule with a rare mid April snowstorm

LRC 2007-2008

We, at this moment, believe that we are in a 54 day cycle this year. This was found in the first two weeks of December, when we noticed the October storm systems repeating. If you look back in our blog entries from October, we were anticipating those big, wet storm systems to return, but we just weren't sure when. And, now we "know" that they will be coming back and soon. The series of 4 storm systems that happened from December 1st through December 21st will likely return between January 24th and February 15th. We will have our long range forecast, all the way through mid February, at the end of this entry when I get it prepared later today.

The warming trend moving in right now is right on schedule with this repeating pattern. Look below at the weather map on November 10th, 2007 (54 days from January 3rd). This is directly related to what is happening right now....

45 day forecast issued January 2nd:

January 3-15th: There will be two big warming stretches that could put us up into the 60s a couple of days. But, it will be broken up by two storm systems. One of the storms will arrive around January 8th-9th. This one will produce some rain and possibly some snow, but it is a storm that will intensify as it passes us. The second storm will arrive around January 12th -15th. This one could come as a very cold air mass is moving in from Canada.

January 15th-25th:

Arctic air will build in strength across Canada. It will be the coldest air of this entire winter up there with temperatures possibly down to 40 degrees below zero or even lower. A couple of strong Arctic fronts will move through Kansas City and the United States should go into the deep freeze before the end of the month.

January 25th -February 20th:

The series of wet and strong storm systems that affected us in October and again in December will return. I think they will be even stronger this time. And, the Arctic air will be around for each of the storm systems. We will have at least 4, and perhaps as many as 7 storm systems between January 25th and February 20th.

This is how we see the pattern cycling right now. This is a long range projection, based on the LRC. We believe this is around a 54 day cycle. So, this all will repeat again with the stormy and wet part of the pattern returning in the second half of March. Another Arctic air mass is likely then, so watch out for a grand finale to this crazy winter before spring truely shows up. Some parts of our viewing area could easily get close to 50 inches of snow this winter.

You can read more about this on the NBC Action Weather PLUS blog.

Have a Great Night!

Andrew

Happy New Year!

2008-01-01T00:07:00.001-06:00

It's 12:05am

January 1, 2008!!

From my family to yours...

<<{{((HAPPY)) <<{{((NEW))}}>> <<{{((YEAR))}}>>

Andrew

Snow Totals and Grading time

2007-12-29T09:11:00.000-06:00

Good Saturday Morning,

Here are some snowfall reports, please send in yours!

Marceline, MO: 3.8-4"

Smithville, MO: 2.75-4"

St. Joseph, MO: 3.5"

Trenton, MO: 3.2"

Fort Leavenworth: 3.25"

Roeland Park, KS: 3.0"

Independence, MO: 2.5-3"

Overland Park, KS: 2.5-3"

Stanley, KS: 2.9"

Olathe, KS: 2.8"

Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center(Olathe): 2.7"

KCK: 2-2.5"

Moberly, MO: 1.9"

Lee's Summit, MO: 1.6"

Harrisonville, MO: 1.3"

Sedalia, MO: 0.50 to near 1"

It's grading time! What do you rate this snowfall forecast? Grade the Snowfall forecast from the last post below.

Snow Storm update:11:15pm 1st SnowFall Forecast

2007-12-27T23:13:00.000-06:00

Above is the Snow Fall Forecast, I think that 2"-3" KC and North. 4"+ North of KCI. Below is the radar showing increasing snow in Emporia,KS. Have to watch this closely as this may lead to enhanced snowfall totals.

Send in you Snow reports!
Andrew

Did you have a Merry Christmas?

2007-12-27T01:40:00.001-06:00

Good Evening,

Hope you had a good Christmas. We had Snow Today! 1.0"-1.4" were reported. Now we have our next storm system to watch which could bring us 1-4" of snow. This will affect us on Thursday Night. I'll will also be doing a blog in the next couple day on the true reason for Christmas! So, stay tuned!

Andrew

Grading Time

2007-12-23T12:28:00.000-06:00

Good Afternoon,

Here's a quick little project for you guys to do:

- Grade yesterday's Snow Forecast (the Final Forecast from the 3:45pm blog post below)

- Send in your snowfall reports

I'll blog more on our next storm system,plus, Snow Fall Totals, later tonight,

Merry Christmas,

Andrew

Update: 3:45pm

2007-12-22T15:45:00.000-06:00

Good Afternoon,

Here is the look at the radar (click to enlarge)from around 3:39pm:

The comma head is going to come thru between 5-8pm. Thunder Snow with 1-2"/hr snowfall rate is possible. Here is the latest and final Snowfall Forecast:

Send in your Snow fall totals tonight, Thanks!
Andrew

Update: 1:15pm

2007-12-22T13:16:00.000-06:00

Good Afternoon,

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the KC Metro Area.
The radar image below is from 12:57pm, I drew where it appears the Snow Line is at. The Snow Line is moving at 20mph to the South and Southwest. By 2pm everybody in the KC Metro should be in the Snow. Very Heavy Snow with Strong Winds, and some Thunder Snow is possible.
click to enlarge

Here is the latest Snow Fall Forecast, I am getting a little worried as the snow line seems to have slowed down a little bit, but I'm keeping with this forecast.
click to enlarge

Send in your Snow Reports!
Andrew

Snowfall Forecast

2007-12-22T00:09:00.000-06:00

Good late Evening,

It's currently 12:12am, the first day of Winter as official arrived!! Below (click to enlarge) is the Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory, which I do expect will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, maybe even a Blizzard Warning as winds will gust tomorrow afternoon from the NE at 25-30mph. Add that with the Moderate to Heavy Snow Showers; we could see white-out conditions.

Now onto the Snowfall Forecast below (click to enlarge) the 00z data seems to have the bullseye right on Kansas City, so I'm going with 5"-7"+ possible. Right now I lean to the 5" range with locally heavier amounts of 6"+. Right now the chance for a White Christmas is up to a 70% chance!!

I'll have more in about 8-10 hours!!
Andrew

Snow Likely? A White Christmas?

2007-12-19T22:31:00.000-06:00

Good Evening,

I have just updated the 5 Day Forecast on the website. Below is the 00z GFS valid at 6pm Saturday, it forecast for the southern storm to be a little stronger before phasing into the northern storm system. I have put the forecasted track of both storms to where they both phase into one big storm.
click to enlarge
As for the White CHRISTmas, the chance is up to a 30% as there is another storm system forecasted to develop and swing south of us. So, after 10-20 years of Brown Christmases could we finally have a white one? We'll will see.
Andrew

Another SnowStorm?

2007-12-18T22:30:00.000-06:00

Quick Update on Saturday's Storm,

The 00z data has the storm system coming in just south of here, which would mean snow. But, there is a Upper Level Low (ULL) which will phase the storm system that could affect us and make one big ULL just north of here. More tomorrow. The 5 Day Forecast is updated.

Andrew

Update:11pm Another Storm System for this weekend?

2007-12-17T21:38:00.000-06:00

Good Evening,

Above is the NWS Estimated Snow Totals (click to enlarge). After lowering the totals Saturday Afternoon to 3-5" which was just about right. I rate the forecast a C-. I should of known not to go for 7-8" of Snow. The Storm System was just too weak, and now it has became a BIG Northeaster !! I am updating the 5 Day Forecast Finally, and I'll have it ready and online between 10:15pm and 10:30pm. We have another Storm System coming toward us for next weekend. The questions are:

Will the storm track North or South of KC?
If the storm tracks south:
Will it be cold enough for snow?
Will it be cold enough throughout the atmosphere for snow?
Could it be Freezing Rain/Sleet?

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Update: Take a look at the new GFS (click to enlarge), valid on Saturday at 6am,it shows the forecast track for the storm system to be a little bit more southerly, this would mean SNOW again for the weekend!! This is still a few days away, so lets see what the trend is tomorrow. Have you Noticed? All the weekends,so far,in December have had either Rain, Snow,Sleet, or Freezing rain!! Amazing!

Have a Great Night!
Andrew

Snow Storm update: 11:30am

2007-12-15T11:31:00.000-06:00

Good Late Morning,

Take a look at the radar, Light to Moderate Snow continues through the area.With a few Heavy pockets.
Click to enlarge

So far here at the Weather Cast PLUS Weather Center: 1.4" of Snow, there has also, been some freezing Drizzle!! WOW!! Super Cooled droplets are still becoming drizzle mixed with snow. The whole Atmosphere is below 32 degrees! Amazing. We still might be able to get a Snow to total of 3-5"+. Send in your Snow Reports and later I'll make a list of Snow Totals! Thanks!
Andrew

Snow Storm update: 11:00pm

2007-12-14T23:00:00.000-06:00

Good Evening,

Here is the latest Snowfall Forecast:

And here is the radar with a path cast on it:

I do not like the latest radar trends, I'm hoping that I'm right about the above snow fall Forecast. More on this tomorrow. Send in your Snow Totals, Please! Click the maps to enlarge them.
Andrew

Snow Forecast for Friday Night through Saturday

2007-12-13T22:37:00.000-06:00

Click to enlarge map
Good Evening,

Here is the Snowfall Forecast for Tomorrow night. I do think 7-10"+ is possible. We do have A Winter Storm Watch for Friday Night through Saturday Afternoon. I'll have more tomorrow, as things can and will change fast.
Andrew